Firpo vs Águila: match statistics

Firpo has a clear home advantage: at home they average 1.56 goals and have xG 1.92 with a 60% win rate at their stadium, while Águila away averages 1.08 goals and xG 1.36 with a 50% away win rate. Defensively the hosts are better — Firpo concedes 0.8 goals at home vs Águila’s 0.96 away and records 48% clean sheets vs 46% for the visitors; Firpo’s home loss rate is only 12% vs Águila’s 33% on the road. Offensively Firpo attempts more shots (12.4 vs 9.58) and more shots on target (5.32 vs 4.0), and the risk of the hosts failing to score is lower (24% vs 38%), which increases their chance of scoring. On the other hand Águila shows slightly better form over the last five matches — averaging 1.6 points per game in the last 5 vs Firpo’s 1.4 (form: Águila ddwwl, Firpo ddddw), so a draw or a point for the visitors is possible. Considering the xG advantage (1.92 vs 1.36), lower average goals conceded and the higher number of shots on target, I favor the hosts and back their victory.

I back BTTS - Yes as the more likely scenario because Firpo has a season BTTS rate of 67% and 100% in the last 5 matches, while Águila has 29% seasonally and 60% in the last 5. Firpo averages 1.52 goals per game with an xG of 1.56, which versus Águila’s xG against of 1.10 indicates a real attacking edge for the hosts. Águila averages 1.08 goals and has xG 1.36 against Firpo’s defense with xG against 1.18, so the visitors also create chances and have scoring potential. Additional metrics show Firpo fail to score in only 11% of matches and keep a clean sheet in 22% (i.e. concede in 78% of games), whereas Águila fails to score in 38% and keeps 46% clean sheets; this combination favors Goal/Goal. Based on this I estimate BTTS at 72% for 'yes' and 28% for 'no', therefore I recommend 'yes'.

Firpo averages 1.52 goals per game with xG 1.56, while Águila averages 1.08 goals with xG 1.36; defenses show xG against of 1.18 (Firpo) and 1.10 (Águila), which yields expected 1.33 goals for the home side and 1.27 for the visitors (total 2.60). This season Firpo has 81% of matches over 1.5 goals, Águila 63%, giving an average ~72% probability for Over 1.5 and a strong signal to back Over 1.5. The 2.5 line is less convincing: 59% of Firpo’s matches over 2.5 vs 29% for Águila (average 44%), and our 2.60 total is close to the threshold, so it doesn’t offer the same edge. The 3.5 line is unlikely (19% Firpo, 13% Águila, average 16%), and additionally Firpo registers 4.42 shots on target and a 15% conversion rate versus Águila’s 4.0 shots on target and 11% conversion, which further supports Over 1.5 as the best selection.

Firpo led at the break in 12 matches, i.e. in 46% of games, scoring an average of 0.96 goals by half-time versus Águila's 0.42, which gives the hosts a clear advantage in the first half. However, Águila are stronger after the break: they score an average of 0.67 goals in the second half while Firpo have 0.58, and the overall away win rate is 50% versus 44% for the hosts. The visitors scored 9 goals in the 61–75 minute interval, while Firpo scored 6, suggesting Águila more frequently improve the score after the break and have the ability to overturn deficits. Despite Firpo's higher xG (1.56 vs 1.36) and first-half dominance, the combination of Firpo leading at half-time in 46% of matches with Águila winning 50% of games indicates the most likely scenario is Firpo leading at the break and Águila winning after the final whistle (HT/FT 1/2).