Firpo vs Cacahuatique: match statistics

Firpo holds a clear advantage across key metrics: at home they average 1.71 goals and 2.01 xG, while Cacahuatique on the road averages 1.45 goals and 1.32 xG. The hosts create significantly more chances — 12.81 shots and 5.9 shots on target per game versus 8.5 and 4.65 for the visitors — which translates into a 67% home win rate and a +20 goal difference at their stadium. Defensively Firpo is more reliable: they concede 0.76 goals at home on average and keep a clean sheet in 52% of matches, whereas Cacahuatique concedes 1.2 goals away and records 35% clean sheets. In the last 5 matches Firpo have won 3 of 5 (form: llwww) and average 1.8 points per game, while the visitors have 2 wins in 5 and average 1.4 points per game (form: ldlww). The visitors have a higher shot-to-goal conversion rate (17% vs 13%) and a lower share of goalless matches (15% vs 24%), so they can be dangerous, but the superiority in xG and number of created chances favors a home win.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 55% (Firpo 55%, Cacahuatique 55%), with the league average BTTS at 55%, providing a neutral baseline of ~55% for the BTTS - Yes scenario. In the last 5 matches Firpo registered BTTS in 60% of games (3/5), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.2 on average, whereas Cacahuatique had BTTS in only 20% (1/5), averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over their last 5. Seasonal xG shows Firpo xG for 1.53 vs xG against 1.48, and Cacahuatique xG for 1.32 vs xG against 1.57; however, in the last 5 matches the away side have xG for 1.96 vs xG against 1.49, indicating they have recently created significantly more chances. Additionally, clean sheet percentages are low: 30% for Firpo and 35% for Cacahuatique, and average shots on target are 4.0 and 4.65 per match, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Considering the seasonal BTTS level of 55%, Firpo’s better attacking form in the last 5 matches, the low clean sheet rates and shot volume, I tip BTTS - Yes at 60% versus 40% for No Goal.

The forecast is based on xG: Firpo has xG_for 1.53 while xG against Cacahuatique is 1.57, yielding expected goals for the home side of about 1.55; Cacahuatique has xG_for 1.32 with xG against Firpo 1.48, about 1.40, totaling ~2.95 goals. Seasonally both teams record many goals — Over 1.5 occurred in 75% of matches for each side, and Over 0.5 appears in 80% (Firpo) and 95% (Cacahuatique) of games — a strong signal for at least two goals in the match. In the last 5 matches Firpo averaged 1.8 goals (9 goals in 5 matches) and had Over 2.5 in 80% of those games, while Cacahuatique averages 1.4 goals in their last 5 matches, which together increases the probability of more than 2 goals. Shot statistics show Firpo averages 9.68 shots (4.0 on target) and Cacahuatique 8.5 (4.65 on target) with conversion rates of 11% vs 17%, explaining the gap between xG and actual goals and suggesting clear scoring opportunities will be created. Based on the combined ~2.95 expected goals and seasonal Over 2.5 rate of 55–65% (avg ~60%), I recommend backing the over at line 1.5 as the strongest and most reliable signal; Over 3.5 is significantly less likely (seasonally 35% for Firpo and 20% for Cacahuatique).

The most likely scenario is Cacahuatique leading at half-time and winning the match (2/2). The visitors led at the break in 50% of their matches, while Firpo led only in 15%, and the average first-half goals are 0.85 for the visitors vs 0.55 for the hosts. Additionally, Cacahuatique has a better shot conversion rate of 17% versus Firpo’s 11% and a low rate of goals conceded before the break (0.25 vs 0.7 for the hosts), which favors maintaining the lead. Although Firpo generates a higher xG (1.53) than their actual goals (1.05, a deficit of 0.48), Cacahuatique has an xG of 1.32 with actual goals of 1.45 (a surplus of 0.13), meaning the visitors convert chances into goals more often. Furthermore, in the last 5 matches Firpo were trailing at half-time in 60% (3 of 5), and the visitors’ second half yields over 0.5 goals in 85% of cases, which is why I assess 2/2 as the strongest signal.