Flota Świnoujście vs Unia Swarzędz: match statistics

The favorite appears to be Unia Swarzędz due to markedly superior form: the visitors have won 4 of their last 5 matches and averaged 2.4 points per game over that span, whereas Flota has only 1 win and 0.8 points per game in their last five. The difference in recent results is also reflected in goal figures: Unia scored 11 and conceded 3 in their last 5 matches (average 2.2 scored and 0.6 conceded per match), while Flota scored 8 and conceded 15 (1.6 scored and 3.0 conceded per match). In home metrics Flota records more shots on target and better conversion (average 5.4 SoT and 18% conversion with 1.46 goals per game), whereas Unia averages 4.22 SoT and a 9% conversion rate. However, average xG favors the visitors: Unia posts xG 1.49 versus Flota’s 1.37, and Unia have defended significantly better in the last five matches (3 goals conceded) compared to Flota (15 conceded). Considering Unia’s 4 wins in five, the xG advantage and Flota’s defensive crisis, I predict an away win; I assess probabilities at approximately 55% for Unia, 25% for the home side and 20% for a draw.

Seasonally both teams have low BTTS rates: Flota 36% and Unia 38%, both below the league average of 52%, indicating clean sheets occur more often than Goal/Goal across the season. However, recent form diverges in the last 5 matches: Flota had BTTS 80% and conceded on average 3.0 goals per match (15 in 5), while Unia had BTTS 40% and conceded only 0.6 goals per match (3 in 5). xG analysis shows Unia is creating 1.50 xG over the last 5 matches while allowing 1.05 xG, whereas Flota has 0.96 xG and allows 1.26 xG, so Unia is currently more dangerous in attack and more stable defensively. Considering the historical BTTS of 36–38%, the current difference in average goals conceded (3.0 vs 0.6) and that only Flota has a high recent BTTS, I tip BTTS - No with a probability of 65% versus 35% for Yes.

Season xG and goals averages indicate a moderately high-scoring game: Flota has an attack xG of 1.69, Unia 1.49, and combining each team’s attack and opponent’s defense yields ≈1.53 expected goals for Flota and ≈1.33 for Unia, totaling ≈2.86 goals. Seasonal shares of matches over 1.5 are 57% for Flota and 69% for Unia, while the league averages 2.94 goals per game, all of which strongly support Over 1.5 goals. In the last 5 matches Flota conceded 15 goals (3.0 per match) and Unia scored 11 (2.2 per match), which further shifts the goals distribution upward and justifies forecasts of Over 1.5 ≈78% and Over 2.5 ≈55%. Over 3.5 looks weaker (around 32%) given seasonal Over 3.5 rates of 29% (Flota) and 31% (Unia), so the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is a bet on Over 1.5.

Unia Swarzędz shows clearly superior form: in the last 5 matches they have won 4 of 5 (80%), while Flota has 1 win in the last 5 (20%). In those last 5 fixtures Unia led at the break in 75% of cases and averaged 1.5 goals by half-time, whereas Flota averaged 0.8 goals at the break, giving Unia an advantage already in the first half. Seasonal half-time averages also favor Unia (0.73 HT goals versus Flota’s 0.50), and over the last 5 Unia conceded on average only 0.25 goals by half-time compared to Flota’s 1.2. Although Flota posts a higher seasonal xG (1.69 vs Unia’s 1.49) and more shots (14.25 vs 13.22) including more shots on target (5.17 vs 4.22), Unia’s current form and first-half defensive stability (low average half-time concessions of 0.25) support Unia leading at the break and winning at full-time (2/2).