Forge FC vs Supra du Québec: match statistics

Forge FC lead their home table and have won 11 of 15 matches this season, while Supra du Québec have recorded just 5 wins and 7 defeats. At home, the hosts concede only 0.43 goals per match, keep a clean sheet in 71% of appearances, and allow opponents an xG of 0.85. Supra are an offensive threat away from home, averaging 1.86 goals and 5.29 shots on target per match, but their defense allows 2.00 goals and an xG of 1.71 per game, without a single clean sheet. Both teams have collected 8 points from their last five matches, but Forge have the more reliable home profile: a 71% home win rate and an xG of 1.61 compared with the visitors’ away xG of 1.36. The hosts’ superior defensive organization should tip this evenly matched contest in their favor.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, as BTTS occurred in 75% of Forge FC matches and as many as 86% of Supra du Québec games, compared with the league average of 63%. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, while Supra concedes an average of 2.00 goals per match, strongly supporting a home goal. Forge recorded a high xG of 2.07 in its last five matches, while the visitors scored 2.0 goals per game over this period and had BTTS in 100% of their appearances. In addition, Supra averages 5.29 shots on target per match, while Forge, despite solid recent defensive form, conceded 4 goals in five games. The biggest risk to the pick is Forge's recent average of just 1.2 goals scored, but the visitors' weak defense and their average xG against of 1.37 support a home goal.

The strongest signal points to at least two goals: Over 1.5 goals landed in 75% of Forge’s matches and 86% of Supra’s games. Neither team has kept a clean sheet this season, while Supra concede an average of 2.00 goals per match, supporting the hosts, who create an average of 1.62 xG. Forge generated as much as 2.07 xG across their last five fixtures, while the visitors scored 2.0 goals per game over the same period. The 2.5 line remains viable, as it was covered in 80% of Supra’s last five matches, but the lower Over 1.5 line offers a clearer edge with a projected 2.80 goals.

A Half-Time/Full-Time draw is the most likely outcome, as Forge were level at the break in 5 of their 8 home matches, or 63% of the time, while Supra had an undetermined result at half-time in 33% of their away games. The hosts’ first halves are highly cautious: Forge average just 0.13 goals before the break, whereas Supra score 0.67 goals during this period. After half-time, the visitors’ attacking potential rises to 1.17 goals per match, and their away games produce an average of as many as 2.67 second-half goals. Supra won 43% of their matches compared with Forge’s 25%, while the hosts concede an average of 1.63 goals, making a turnaround in favor of the visitors the more realistic scenario. The X/2 scenario is further supported by the fact that, across their last five matches, Supra averaged 1.50 second-half goals, compared with Forge’s 0.60.