Fort Wayne vs One Knoxville: match statistics

One Knoxville are 4th, while Fort Wayne sit 8th. Over the course of the season, the visitors have won 12 matches and lost 5, compared with 9 wins and 8 defeats for the hosts. Current form also favors the away side: they have collected 10 points from their last five matches, recording 3 wins and a draw, whereas Fort Wayne have earned just 6 points from 2 victories and 3 defeats. The visitors are more clinical away from home, averaging 1.75 goals per match with a 14% conversion rate, while the hosts score 1.64 goals at home with an 11% efficiency rate. Fort Wayne do create more chances on their own ground, averaging 1.78 xG and 5.55 shots on target, but they have conceded 10 goals in their last five appearances, compared with just 6 for One Knoxville. The visitors’ away record, featuring a 50% win rate and just 17% defeats, gives them a slight but clear edge despite Fort Wayne’s solid defensive record, with clean sheets in 55% of their home matches.

Both teams regularly feature in matches with goals at both ends: Fort Wayne’s seasonal BTTS rate stands at 69%, while One Knoxville’s is 67%, compared with the league average of 59%. The signal remains strong across the last five matches, with the hosts recording BTTS in 60% of games and the visitors in as many as 80%. During this period, Fort Wayne averaged 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while One Knoxville scored 1.8 goals per match and conceded 1.2. Their attacking potential is supported by xG: the hosts generated an average of 2.10 xG across their last five appearances, while the visitors have averaged 1.75 goals per match throughout the season. The BTTS - Yes pick is preferred, although Fort Wayne’s clean sheets in 31% of matches and One Knoxville’s in 25% leave a moderate risk of a No Goal scenario for one of the teams.

Both teams regularly feature in matches with at least 2 goals: this outcome occurred in 77% of Fort Wayne matches and 83% of One Knoxville games. Across their last 5 appearances, both sides averaged 1.8 goals scored, while Fort Wayne conceded as many as 2.0 goals per match, supporting an open-game scenario. The hosts generate an average of 1.85 xG, compared with 1.50 xG conceded by One Knoxville, while the visitors score 1.75 goals per game this season. Another supporting factor is the high percentage of matches in which both teams scored, standing at 69% for Fort Wayne and 67% for One Knoxville. The Over 1.5 line has the highest probability, as the projected 3.03 goals comfortably exceeds the two-goal threshold.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time and a One Knoxville victory after the final whistle, as Fort Wayne were level at the break in 77% of their matches, compared with 64% for One Knoxville. The visitors are clearly more effective after half-time, averaging 1.09 goals compared with Fort Wayne’s 0.85 and winning the second half in 55% of matches, versus 38% for the hosts. Current form also favors One Knoxville, who have won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 2.0 points in those games, while Fort Wayne have lost 3 of their last 5. The hosts create slightly more chances, as reflected by an xG of 1.85 compared with 1.55, but they have recently conceded an average of 2.0 goals per match, whereas the visitors have conceded just 1.2. Therefore, the visitors’ advantage should become apparent after an evenly balanced first half.