Fortaleza vs Goiás: match statistics

Fortaleza holds a clear advantage in home metrics: at home they win 67% of matches, remain undefeated (0% losses) and average 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. In the last 5 matches the hosts have scored 8 goals and average 2.2 points per game, while Goiás have only 3 goals in their last five and average 0.8 points per game. The visitors struggle massively on the road: 0% wins, 67% losses, 67% of away games without scoring and an average of only 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per away match. Despite higher average possession (57% vs 47%), Goiás fail to convert possession into quality chances — the visitors’ average xG is 1.17 versus Fortaleza’s 1.30, and shot conversion rate is 6% vs 13% in favor of the hosts. Considering Fortaleza’s efficiency (13% conversion and 3.33 shots on target), better defensive record at their stadium (1.00 goals conceded on average) and Goiás’ poor away form, I predict a home win.

I back BTTS - No (65% vs 35% for Yes) because data indicate the home side as the more reliable scorer while Goiás has low finishing efficiency. Fortaleza have seen BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded; seasonally at home they score 1.33 G per match with 33% clean sheets and home xG 1.08 (1.44 in last 5). Goiás in their last 5 matches have only 20% BTTS and score 0.6 G per match (0.67 away on the season); despite xG 1.17 and 3.33 shots on target, their conversion is only 6%. Additionally Goiás have 0% clean sheets away and concede 1.67 G on average away, which raises the chance of a Fortaleza goal but does not imply Goiás will reply. Therefore the most likely scenario is only the home side scores — hence the No BTTS selection (65%).

I estimated expected goals at 1.23 for Fortaleza and 1.26 for Goiás (total 2.49); values were derived by averaging offensive xG (1.08 Fortaleza, 1.17 Goiás) and opponent defensive xG (1.21 and 1.54) and applying ~7% home advantage. Fortaleza averages 1.33 goals per game and has scored 8 and conceded 4 in the last 5 matches; Goiás has a season scoring average of 0.67 and has only 3 scored and 7 conceded in the last 5, indicating poorer form and defensive vulnerability from the visitors. Both teams have had 100% of matches with at least one goal this season, and the home side has 67% of matches with at least 2 goals; additionally Fortaleza’s shot conversion is higher at 13% versus 6% for Goiás, supporting a higher-scoring scenario. Using a Poisson model with aggregate lambda=2.49 we get probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) around 71% (P0 ~8.3%, P1 ~20.7%), probability ≥3 goals (Over 2.5) around 45%, and ≥4 goals (Over 3.5) around 24%. As a result, the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is Over 1.5 (line 1.5, side 'over'), because the high expected value combined with Fortaleza’s form and 100% of matches featuring goals gives a clear edge to this option.

First-half statistics clearly indicate a draw at the break: Fortaleza were level at halftime in 67% of matches and led in 33% (leadingAtHTPercentage_home = 33, drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 67), whereas Goiás did not lead at halftime (leadingAtHTPercentage_away = 0) and were trailing at the break in 33% (trailingAtHTPercentage_away = 33). Fortaleza average 0.67 goals by HT versus 0.33 for Goiás (scoredAVGHT_home 0.67 vs scoredAVGHT_away 0.33), and in the last 5 matches had 6 goals before the break compared to 3 for the visitors (last5_GoalsHT_overall_home 6 vs last5_GoalsHT_overall_away 3). In the second half the home side more frequently swing the result in their favor: second-half goals average 1.67 for Fortaleza vs 1.33 for Goiás (AVG_2hg_home 1.67 vs AVG_2hg_away 1.33), and in the last 5 fixtures the hosts are in better form (last 5: dwwdw, 60% wins vs wlldl and 20% for Goiás). Despite similar xG (1.08 vs 1.17), Fortaleza exhibit higher efficiency—shot conversion 13% versus 6% for Goiás—and higher average points per match (2.0 for the hosts vs 0.33 for the visitors); therefore the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home victory at full-time (X/1).