Fortaleza vs Náutico: match statistics

Fortaleza sit third in the table and have won 60% of their home matches, while 14th-placed Náutico have won just 20% of their away games. The hosts are unbeaten in their last five league matches, recording 3 wins and 2 draws; the visitors have won twice during that period but have also suffered 2 defeats. At home, Fortaleza average 1.60 goals and 5.33 shots on target per match, compared with Náutico’s away averages of 1.27 goals and 3.67 shots on target. The hosts’ advantage is further underlined by chance quality: their average home xG is 1.78, while Náutico average 1.52 away from home. Fortaleza concede just 0.87 goals per home match, compared with Náutico’s 1.60 away, making a home win the most likely outcome.

Fortaleza have a clear chance of scoring: they average 2.08 xG, while Náutico concede 1.60 xG and 1.60 goals per match. The visitors also have good reason to find the net—they average 1.27 goals, rising to 1.60 over their last five matches. During that same period, both teams scored in 60% of their matches, strengthening the case for BTTS - Yes. The forecast remains cautious, however, as Fortaleza keep a clean sheet in 40% of matches and concede just 0.87 goals on average. Even so, Náutico’s recent scoring form gives the both-teams-to-score scenario a slight edge.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: 80% of each team’s matches finished below this line. Fortaleza concede an average of 0.87 goals and have conceded just 4 goals across their last five matches, limiting Náutico’s chances of scoring heavily. However, the hosts could create more opportunities, with an average xG of 2.08, while the visitors allow opponents an xG of 1.60 and concede an average of 1.60 goals. As many as 80% of Náutico’s last five matches went Over 2.5 goals, making the lower line less reliable. The 2.59-goal forecast accounts for this attacking potential but still points to a result below 3.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is Fortaleza leading at the break and maintaining that advantage until full time: the hosts were ahead at half-time in 5 of 15 matches, while Náutico were trailing at that point in 9 of 15. In their last 5 matches, Fortaleza led at the break 3 times and did not lose any of them, while the visitors conceded an average of 0.8 goals before half-time. The full-season record also supports Fortaleza holding onto their lead: they won 53% of their matches and conceded an average of 0.87 goals, compared with Náutico’s 20% win rate and 1.60 goals conceded per match. The hosts create more chances, averaging 2.08 xG to their opponents’ 1.52, although the visitors score an average of 1.0 goal after half-time, leaving some risk of a turnaround.