Fratria vs Rilski Sportist: match statistics

Fratria creates significantly more chances at home — averaging 15 shots and 3 on target per game with 63% possession and xG 1.75, while Rilski Sportist’s away statistics show xG 0 and no recorded average shots, which may indicate incomplete data for the visitors. Despite this, Fratria has a serious finishing problem: average goals in home matches is 0 and the percentage of matches without scoring is 100%, despite an expected 1.75 xG. Rilski Sportist has the better recent run — 3 wins and 2 losses in the last 5 matches and an average of 1.8 points per game, versus Fratria’s 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses and 1.4 points per game. Both teams concede roughly 1 goal per game (Fratria 1.0 in home performances, Rilski 5 goals conceded in 5 recent matches, i.e. ~1.0 per game), suggesting an even and relatively low-scoring contest. Considering Fratria’s creation (15 shots, 3 on target, xG 1.75) combined with finishing issues and the visitors’ better form (1.8 points per game), I assess a draw as the most likely result.

Statistical analysis favors a BTTS scenario: in the league BTTS occurs in 67% of matches and the average goals per match is 3.0, which supports both teams scoring. In the last 5 fixtures Fratria had BTTS in 40% of games (9 goals for and 5 against, averaging 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded), while Rilski Sportist had 60% BTTS (7 for and 5 against, averaging 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded). Fratria generated xG 1.73 and faced xG against 1.12 across those 5 matches, confirming the ability to create roughly 1.7 scoring chances per game; xG details for Rilski are lacking, but their goals average of 1.4 with 1.0 conceded also indicates a risk of conceding. Fratria’s lower 40% BTTS partially reduces confidence in the forecast, but their higher scoring average 1.8 vs 1.4 and the league BTTS level of 67% tilt the balance in favor of both teams scoring. Therefore I set probability 'yes' at 62% and 'no' at 38% — I pick 'yes' as the strongest signal based on the league 67% and the specific values 1.8, 1.4 and equal 1.0 conceded.

Fratria has averaged 1.8 goals in the last 5 matches, while Rilski Sportist averages 1.4, totaling 3.2 goals per game versus the league average of 3.0. Fratria's xG over the last 5 matches is 1.73 with xG against 1.12, so I expect the home side to generate around 1.73 expected goals. Rilski scores 1.4 on average, and Fratria has conceded 1.0 in the last 5 matches, hence the estimated expected goals for the visitors is approximately (1.4+1.0)/2 = 1.20. The sum of expected goals 1.73+1.20 = 2.93 and over 2.5 rates are 80% for Fratria and 60% for Rilski, which indicates a high probability of Over 2.5 (I estimate 70%), while the chance of Over 3.5 is lower (around 35%). Due to strong signals from xG and the high contribution of over 2.5, I take the Over line at 1.5 as the strongest signal.

Fratria starts matches strongly — in 3 of their last 5 fixtures (60%) they held a lead at the break, averaging 1.2 goals by half-time and conceding 0.4. Rilski Sportist, on the other hand, practically scored nothing by half-time (0.0 on average), but is markedly more effective in second halves: averaging 2.0 goals and a +4 second-half goal difference across their last five games. The visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches (60%), while Fratria have won 2 of 5 (40%), suggesting the home side’s first-half advantage often proves insufficient for a final victory. On this basis I assign the highest probability to the scenario where Fratria lead at half-time but Rilski wins after the break (HT/FT 1/2) — approximately 30% chance; the 1/1 scenario I estimate at ~21%. The combination of Fratria’s 60% rate of leading at the break and Rilski’s average of 2.0 second-half goals (with a 100% success rate in those second halves in the sample) provides the strongest signal for a visitors’ turnaround.