Gagra vs Dila: match statistics

Dila are the clear favorites: the visitors have 6 wins this season and have conceded 10 goals, while Gagra have only 2 wins and 21 conceded. Form underlines the gap — Gagra have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches, failed to win any and conceded 10 goals (averaging 0.2 points per match), whereas Dila have scored 3, conceded 4 and averaged 0.8 points per match over their last 5. At home Gagra are yet to record a win (0% win rate), concede 1.71 goals per game on average and have a -6 home goal difference, while Dila concede only 0.71 goals per away match, have a +2 away goal difference and 43% clean sheets. In attack the hosts attempt slightly more shots (11.86 vs 10.86) and have higher xG (1.51 vs 1.34), but their efficiency is lower (conversion 7% versus 9% for Dila), which, combined with weaker defending, limits their real threat. Considering Dila’s advantage in wins (6 vs 2), better away defense (0.71 vs 1.71 goals conceded) and Gagra’s lack of home victories, I forecast a win for the visitors.

Both teams have low seasonal BTTS rates: Gagra 29% and Dila 29%, indicating a low likelihood of both teams scoring on a season basis. In the last 5 matches Gagra had BTTS 40% and Dila 20% — average 30% — but the distribution is asymmetric: Gagra conceded on average 2.0 goals in those five matches (10 total), while Dila conceded 0.8 (4 total), so it is more likely that only one side is prone to conceding. In terms of creation both teams have similar xG: Gagra 1.28 and Dila 1.34, but actual goals per match are lower (0.57 and 1.00) with conversion rates of 6% and 9%, meaning xG chances do not necessarily translate into goals for both sides. Additionally both teams have 43% of matches with a clean sheet, while the league has 60% clean sheets and an average of 2.34 goals per match, which favors a No Goal scenario. As a result I assess BTTS at 30% versus 70% for No Goal and therefore recommend selecting 'No'.

A model combining team attacking xG and opponent xG yields 1.31 expected goals for Gagra (attacking xG 1.28 vs xG conceded to Dila 1.34) and 1.25 for Dila (attacking xG 1.34 vs xG conceded to Gagra 1.15), for a total of 2.56 expected goals. A Poisson simulation with lambda=2.56 indicates probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) around 73%, Over 2.5 around 47% and Over 3.5 around 26%. Season figures show Gagra scores on average 0.57 goals per match, Dila 1.00, and the percentage of matches over 2.5 is 14% for home teams and 29% for away teams, nominally favoring Under 2.5. However, the last 5 rounds shift the perspective: Gagra conceded 10 goals in five matches (2.0 average), while Dila scored 3 goals in five (0.6 average); additionally season percentages of matches with at least one goal are 86% (Gagra) and 100% (Dila). As a result the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (line 1.5, side 'Over') with an estimated probability of about 73%, while Over 2.5 and Over 3.5 look less convincing (47% and 26%).

I forecast a half-time draw and a Dila win after 90 minutes (HT/FT X/2): Dila were level at the break in 86% of matches and recorded clean first halves in 86% of games, conceding only 0.14 goals on average by half-time. Gagra were trailing at the break in 60% of their last five matches and averaged 0.0 goals before half-time in those five games, which weakens their chances of leading after 45 minutes. After the interval Dila are active: they average 0.57 goals in second halves, score more than 0.5 goals after the break in 86% of matches and win the second half in 43% of cases, whereas Gagra record no second-half wins (0%). Additionally, the visitors have better shot conversion (9% versus Gagra’s 6%) and a higher season win rate (57% versus 29%), with similar xG (1.34 versus 1.28), suggesting Dila convert chances more often after the break. Therefore the strongest signal is X/2; alternatively a full-time draw (X/X) is possible, given the frequent clean first halves by hosts (57%) and visitors (86%).