Goiás vs Ponte Preta: match statistics

Goiás are clear favorites: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 8 goals and conceding just 2, while Ponte Preta have failed to win during that period and have conceded 12 goals. The hosts have won 56% of their home matches, while the visitors have lost as many as 94% of their away games. The attacking gap is clear: Goiás average 1.64 xG and 4.17 shots on target per match at home, compared with Ponte Preta's 0.93 xG and 2.78 shots on target per away match. The visitors score just 0.44 goals per game away from home and have failed to score in 72% of those matches, limiting their chances against a home defense that concedes an average of 1 goal per game. In addition, Ponte Preta concede an average of 2.78 goals away from home, making a Goiás win the most likely outcome.

The strongest indication is that Ponte Preta will fail to score: they have been held scoreless in 72% of their matches this season and average just 0.44 goals per game. Goiás have conceded an average of only 0.4 goals across their last 5 matches, while Ponte Preta have averaged 0.8 goals over the same period. The hosts are more likely to find the net, as the visitors have conceded an average of 2.78 goals this season and 2.4 across their last 5 matches. Although Goiás have kept a clean sheet in only 17% of their matches this season, Ponte Preta’s clear attacking weakness makes BTTS - No the more likely outcome: at least one team is expected not to score, most likely Ponte Preta.

The strongest signal points to at least 2 goals: this threshold was exceeded in 78% of Goiás matches and 94% of Ponte Preta matches. The visitors concede an average of 2.78 goals, have failed to keep a clean sheet, and have conceded 12 goals in their last 5 matches, giving the hosts a clear chance to score multiple goals. Goiás have scored 8 goals in their last 5 matches, while Ponte Preta have failed to score in 72% of their matches, so I expect the hosts to account for the larger share of the goals. A forecast of 2.40 goals, combined with the fact that the 3-goal threshold was exceeded in only 33% of Goiás matches and 50% of the visitors’ matches, favors Over 1.5 goals rather than a higher line.

Goiás have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.6 goals and conceding 0.4, while Ponte Preta have failed to win any and conceded an average of 2.4 goals. The hosts’ advantage could emerge before the break: over the season, they have led at the break in 33% of their matches, while the visitors have gone into half-time trailing in 67%. In their last 5 matches, Goiás have not conceded in the first half, whereas Ponte Preta have conceded an average of 1.2 goals before the break. Their ability to hold on to a lead is also supported by their second-half form: Goiás have recently scored an average of 1.0 goals after the break, while Ponte Preta have failed to score in that period and have conceded an average of 1.2. Therefore, a home lead at half-time followed by a full-time win is the strongest HT/FT scenario, although Goiás’ half-time draws in 3 of their last 5 matches make a draw/home-win outcome a notable alternative.