Gor Mahia vs TransMara Sugar: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates balanced chances for both teams, which favors a draw. Gor Mahia displays unstable home form with a 43% win rate and 43% loss rate, and their last five home matches have been a series of unpredictable results. TransMara Sugar stands out with an impressive 60% draw rate away from home and remains unbeaten in away matches this season, indicating solid defensive organization. The visitors boast a better away goal difference (+2) and a higher average goals scored (1.2 vs 1.0), as well as a lower rate of matches without a goal scored (20% vs 29%). Considering TransMara Sugar's away stability and the hosts' low efficiency in home matches, the most likely scenario is a share of the points, although Gor Mahia as the home side retains a chance for victory.
Gor Mahia vs TransMara Sugar: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Gor Mahia played against TransMara Sugar in Kenyan Premier League (Kenya). The game was played on January 18, 2026. Final score: 3:0.
Recent form
Gor Mahia has 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.80 points per game. TransMara Sugar has 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, with 1.60 points per game.
Scoring records
Gor Mahia scores 1.44 goals per game and allows 0.75. TransMara Sugar scores 0.81 and allows 0.75. Games in this league average 1.93 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 38% of Gor Mahia's games and 38% of TransMara Sugar's. The Over 2.5 rates are 25% and 19%, compared with league averages of 42% for BTTS and 31% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
TransMara Sugar has the higher season xG average, 1.52 to 1.50 per game. Gor Mahia takes 10.1 shots per game, while TransMara Sugar takes 11.4.
First-half and second-half trends
Gor Mahia leads at halftime in 31% of its games and scores 0.44 goals per game after halftime. TransMara Sugar leads at halftime in 0% and scores 0.38 after halftime.
When the teams score
Gor Mahia's most productive scoring window is minutes 0-15 (13 goals). For TransMara Sugar, it is minutes 0-15 (7 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Kenyan Premier League games average 1.93 goals. Both teams score in 42% of games, and 31% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
There is not enough head-to-head history for a meaningful comparison.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates balanced chances for both teams, which favors a draw. Gor Mahia displays unstable home form with a 43% win rate and 43% loss rate, and their last five home matches have been a series of unpredictable results. TransMara Sugar stands out with an impressive 60% draw rate away from home and remains unbeaten in away matches this season, indicating solid defensive organization. The visitors boast a better away goal difference (+2) and a higher average goals scored (1.2 vs 1.0), as well as a lower rate of matches without a goal scored (20% vs 29%). Considering TransMara Sugar's away stability and the hosts' low efficiency in home matches, the most likely scenario is a share of the points, although Gor Mahia as the home side retains a chance for victory.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Gor Mahia | TransMara Sugar | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 22% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Gor Mahia is 13% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / game - Gor Mahia · 1.6 pts / game - TransMara Sugar
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Gor Mahia is 78% better for: goals scored per game.
1.44 goals / game - Gor Mahia · 0.81 goals / game - TransMara Sugar
Gor Mahia scores in 81% of games (13 of 16 meczów), while TransMara Sugar keeps a clean sheet in 44% (7 of 16 meczów).
TransMara Sugar scores in 56% of games (9 of 16 meczów), while Gor Mahia keeps a clean sheet in 50% (8 of 16 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Gor Mahia
Over / Under - TransMara Sugar
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Gor Mahia is 73% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.63 pts / game - Gor Mahia · 0.94 pts / game - TransMara Sugar
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Gor Mahia - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 31% of games and wins 56%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.1 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
TransMara Sugar - second-half results
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Average goals per game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 goal | 0% | 0% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 100% |
| No goal | 100% | 100% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (13 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (7 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Gor Mahia
TransMara Sugar
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kenyan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Gor Mahia | Liga | TransMara Sugar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 2.19 | 1.93 | ▼ 1.56 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 38% | 42% | ▼ 38% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 25% | 31% | ▼ 19% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 37% | ▲ 44% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 38% | 32% | ▼ 13% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 44% | 35% | ▼ 31% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
FAQ
What was the result of Gor Mahia vs TransMara Sugar?
The Kenyan Premier League match finished Gor Mahia 3:0 TransMara Sugar. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Gor Mahia vs TransMara Sugar?
Gor Mahia score 1.44 goals per game on average and TransMara Sugar 0.81. The Kenyan Premier League average is 1.93 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 31% of games. Both teams score in 38% of Gor Mahia's matches and 38% of TransMara Sugar's.
What form are Gor Mahia and TransMara Sugar in?
Over the last 5 games Gor Mahia have a 2-3-0 record (1.80 points per game) and TransMara Sugar 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Gor Mahia vs TransMara Sugar?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.