Gorica vs Varaždin: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates highly balanced probabilities for both sides, suggesting a draw as the most probable outcome. Gorica sits in 8th place and struggles with home form, suffering a 56% loss rate on their own turf, yet they maintain a slight edge in possession (52%) and a marginally better goal difference in home fixtures (-4 vs -5 for Varaždin away). Despite a higher league position (6th), Varaždin displays poor away form, winning just 22% of away games and failing to score in 44% of matches. Both teams share an identical loss rate (56%), and their recent form is comparable (Gorica 0.8 PPG, Varaždin 1.0 PPG in the last 5 matches). The average xG for both teams in the respective contexts is very similar (1.36 vs 1.18), further confirming the even nature of this clash. Considering all factors, I anticipate a tight, competitive encounter with a slight advantage for the hosts, likely ending in a share of the points.
Gorica vs Varaždin: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Gorica played against Varaždin in Prva HNL (Croatia). The game was played on January 26, 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Recent form
Gorica has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.80 points per game. Varaždin has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, with 0.80 points per game.
Scoring records
Gorica scores 1.17 goals per game and allows 1.50. Varaždin scores 1.22 and allows 1.39. Games in this league average 2.73 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 67% of Gorica's games and 61% of Varaždin's. The Over 2.5 rates are 50% and 50%, compared with league averages of 63% for BTTS and 54% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Varaždin has the higher season xG average, 1.42 to 1.39 per game. Gorica takes 11.4 shots per game, while Varaždin takes 12.3.
First-half and second-half trends
Gorica leads at halftime in 39% of its games and scores 0.50 goals per game after halftime. Varaždin leads at halftime in 28% and scores 0.56 after halftime.
When the teams score
Gorica's most productive scoring window is minutes 16-30 (7 goals). For Varaždin, it is minutes 0-15 (4 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Prva HNL games average 2.73 goals. Both teams score in 63% of games, and 54% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 2 previous meetings were available. The record was 0 home wins, 1 draw and 1 away win. Those games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates highly balanced probabilities for both sides, suggesting a draw as the most probable outcome. Gorica sits in 8th place and struggles with home form, suffering a 56% loss rate on their own turf, yet they maintain a slight edge in possession (52%) and a marginally better goal difference in home fixtures (-4 vs -5 for Varaždin away). Despite a higher league position (6th), Varaždin displays poor away form, winning just 22% of away games and failing to score in 44% of matches. Both teams share an identical loss rate (56%), and their recent form is comparable (Gorica 0.8 PPG, Varaždin 1.0 PPG in the last 5 matches). The average xG for both teams in the respective contexts is very similar (1.36 vs 1.18), further confirming the even nature of this clash. Considering all factors, I anticipate a tight, competitive encounter with a slight advantage for the hosts, likely ending in a share of the points.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Gorica | Varaždin | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Varaždin is 8% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.5 goals / game - Gorica · 1.39 goals / game - Varaždin
Gorica scores in 72% of games (13 of 18 meczów), while Varaždin keeps a clean sheet in 22% (4 of 18 meczów).
Varaždin scores in 72% of games (13 of 18 meczów), while Gorica keeps a clean sheet in 6% (1 of 18 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Gorica
Over / Under - Varaždin
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Gorica is 13% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.44 pts / game - Gorica · 1.28 pts / game - Varaždin
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Gorica - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 39% of games and wins 28%. Sometimes gives up a halftime lead.
Allows 0.4 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Varaždin - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 28% of games and wins 33%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -1 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (7 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (4 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Gorica
Varaždin
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Prva HNL).
Teams vs league
| Gorica | Liga | Varaždin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.67 | 2.73 | ▼ 2.61 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 63% | ▼ 61% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 54% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 6% | 22% | • 22% |
| Goal before half-time | • 78% | 79% | ▼ 72% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 84% | ▼ 72% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Gorica's perspective: 0 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss against Varaždin. Games average 3.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Gorica vs Varaždin?
The Prva HNL match finished Gorica 1:2 Varaždin. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Gorica and Varaždin?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Gorica won 0, Varaždin won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Gorica vs Varaždin?
Gorica score 1.17 goals per game on average and Varaždin 1.22. The Prva HNL average is 2.73 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Gorica's matches and 61% of Varaždin's.
What form are Gorica and Varaždin in?
Over the last 5 games Gorica have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Varaždin 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Gorica vs Varaždin?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.