Gorica vs Varaždin: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates highly balanced probabilities for both sides, suggesting a draw as the most probable outcome. Gorica sits in 8th place and struggles with home form, suffering a 56% loss rate on their own turf, yet they maintain a slight edge in possession (52%) and a marginally better goal difference in home fixtures (-4 vs -5 for Varaždin away). Despite a higher league position (6th), Varaždin displays poor away form, winning just 22% of away games and failing to score in 44% of matches. Both teams share an identical loss rate (56%), and their recent form is comparable (Gorica 0.8 PPG, Varaždin 1.0 PPG in the last 5 matches). The average xG for both teams in the respective contexts is very similar (1.36 vs 1.18), further confirming the even nature of this clash. Considering all factors, I anticipate a tight, competitive encounter with a slight advantage for the hosts, likely ending in a share of the points.
Gorica vs Varaždin: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Gorica play Varaždin in Prva HNL (Croatia). The match date is 26 January 2026 at 16:00. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Gorica: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Varaždin: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Gorica scores 1.11 and concedes 1.33 goals per match. Varaždin scores 1.31 and concedes 1.28. League average: 2.66 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Gorica 50%, Varaždin 61%. Over 2.5: Gorica 44%, Varaždin 47%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 49%.
xG, shots and style
Varaždin has higher xG: 1.37 vs 1.30. Gorica: 10.8 shots per match, Varaždin: 11.5.
Match halves
Gorica: half-time lead 36%, second-half goals 0.44. Varaždin: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.53.
Goals by minute
Gorica: 76-90+ (10 goals). Varaždin: 0-15 (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Prva HNL: 2.66 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 49%.
Head-to-head
3 H2H matches: 0-2-1. Average goals 2.67, BTTS 100%.
Match description
Statistical analysis indicates highly balanced probabilities for both sides, suggesting a draw as the most probable outcome. Gorica sits in 8th place and struggles with home form, suffering a 56% loss rate on their own turf, yet they maintain a slight edge in possession (52%) and a marginally better goal difference in home fixtures (-4 vs -5 for Varaždin away). Despite a higher league position (6th), Varaždin displays poor away form, winning just 22% of away games and failing to score in 44% of matches. Both teams share an identical loss rate (56%), and their recent form is comparable (Gorica 0.8 PPG, Varaždin 1.0 PPG in the last 5 matches). The average xG for both teams in the respective contexts is very similar (1.36 vs 1.18), further confirming the even nature of this clash. Considering all factors, I anticipate a tight, competitive encounter with a slight advantage for the hosts, likely ending in a share of the points.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Gorica | Varaždin | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Varaždin is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Gorica · 1.4 pts / match - Varaždin
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Varaždin is 18% better for: goals scored per match.
1.11 goals / match - Gorica · 1.31 goals / match - Varaždin
Gorica scores in 67% of matches (24 of 36 matches), while Varaždin keeps a clean sheet in 28% (10 of 36 matches).
Varaždin scores in 83% of matches (30 of 36 matches), while Gorica keeps a clean sheet in 22% (8 of 36 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Gorica
Over / Under — Varaždin
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Gorica - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 36% of matches and wins 31%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Varaždin - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (10 goli). Concedes most in 16-30 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Gorica
Varaždin
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Prva HNL).
Teams vs league
| Gorica | Liga | Varaždin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.44 | 2.66 | • 2.58 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 52% | ▲ 61% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 44% | 49% | ▼ 47% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 22% | 28% | • 28% |
| Goal before half-time | • 78% | 77% | • 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 75% | 77% | ▼ 72% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Gorica 0 - 2 - 1 Varaždin. Average goals 2.67, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Gorica vs Varaždin?
The Prva HNL match finished Gorica 1:2 Varaždin. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Gorica and Varaždin?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Gorica won 0, Varaždin won 1 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 2.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Gorica vs Varaždin?
Gorica score 1.11 goals per game on average and Varaždin 1.31. The Prva HNL average is 2.66 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Gorica's matches and 61% of Varaždin's.
What form are Gorica and Varaždin in?
Over the last 5 games Gorica have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Varaždin 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Gorica vs Varaždin?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.