Grêmio vs Botafogo: match statistics
Botafogo currently sits in first place in the league table with maximum points this season (1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses), demonstrating their excellent form. The visitors have scored 4 goals without conceding any this season, presenting a solid defense. Grêmio occupies the 16th position in the table with one defeat and a goal difference of 1:2, indicating a weaker start to the season for the hosts. Form in the last 5 matches also speaks in favor of Botafogo (1.8 points per match) compared to Grêmio (1.4 points per match). Considering the table position, goal difference, and the form of both teams, Botafogo holds a clear advantage and is the favorite for this meeting. The predicted result is a victory for the visitors, although Grêmio playing at home may put up resistance; hence, I leave some probability for a draw or a surprise from the hosts.
Grêmio vs Botafogo: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Grêmio play Botafogo in Serie A (Brazil). The match date is 5 February 2026 at 01:30. Final score: 5:3.
Current form
Grêmio: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Botafogo: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Grêmio scores 1.11 and concedes 1.32 goals per match. Botafogo scores 1.83 and concedes 1.78. League average: 2.64 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Grêmio 58%, Botafogo 83%. Over 2.5: Grêmio 42%, Botafogo 83%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Botafogo has higher xG: 1.43 vs 1.23. Grêmio: 11.2 shots per match, Botafogo: 12.6.
Match halves
Grêmio: half-time lead 16%, second-half goals 0.68. Botafogo: half-time lead 39%, second-half goals 1.06.
Goals by minute
Grêmio: 46-60 (7 goals). Botafogo: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.64 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
2 H2H matches: 0-1-1. Average goals 3.50, BTTS 100%.
Match description
Botafogo currently sits in first place in the league table with maximum points this season (1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses), demonstrating their excellent form. The visitors have scored 4 goals without conceding any this season, presenting a solid defense. Grêmio occupies the 16th position in the table with one defeat and a goal difference of 1:2, indicating a weaker start to the season for the hosts. Form in the last 5 matches also speaks in favor of Botafogo (1.8 points per match) compared to Grêmio (1.4 points per match). Considering the table position, goal difference, and the form of both teams, Botafogo holds a clear advantage and is the favorite for this meeting. The predicted result is a victory for the visitors, although Grêmio playing at home may put up resistance; hence, I leave some probability for a draw or a surprise from the hosts.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Grêmio | Botafogo | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Botafogo is 100% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Grêmio · 1.6 pts / match - Botafogo
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Botafogo is 65% better for: goals scored per match.
1.11 goals / match - Grêmio · 1.83 goals / match - Botafogo
Grêmio is 35% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.32 goals / match - Grêmio · 1.78 goals / match - Botafogo
Grêmio scores in 68% of matches (13 of 19 matches), while Botafogo keeps a clean sheet in 6% (1 of 18 matches).
Botafogo scores in 89% of matches (16 of 18 matches), while Grêmio keeps a clean sheet in 26% (5 of 19 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Grêmio
Over / Under — Botafogo
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Botafogo is 37% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.05 pts / match - Grêmio · 1.44 pts / match - Botafogo
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Grêmio - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 16% of matches and wins 26%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Botafogo - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 39% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goli). Concedes most in 46-60 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Grêmio
Botafogo
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Grêmio | Liga | Botafogo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.42 | 2.64 | ▲ 3.61 |
| Both teams scored | • 58% | 58% | ▲ 83% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 42% | 50% | ▲ 83% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 26% | 23% | ▼ 6% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 58% | 77% | • 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 68% | 78% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Grêmio 0 - 1 - 1 Botafogo. Average goals 3.50, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Grêmio vs Botafogo?
The Serie A match finished Grêmio 5:3 Botafogo. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Grêmio and Botafogo?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Grêmio won 0, Botafogo won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Grêmio vs Botafogo?
Grêmio score 1.11 goals per game on average and Botafogo 1.83. The Serie A average is 2.64 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 58% of Grêmio's matches and 83% of Botafogo's.
What form are Grêmio and Botafogo in?
Over the last 5 games Grêmio have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Botafogo 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Grêmio vs Botafogo?
The statistical background for Grêmio vs Botafogo — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.