Grêmio vs Fluminense: match statistics
Grêmio vs Fluminense: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Grêmio played against Fluminense in Serie A (Brazil). The game was played on July 26, 2026. Venue: Arena do Grêmio. Final score: 1:1.
Recent form
Grêmio has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.80 points per game. Fluminense has 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss, with 1.20 points per game.
Scoring records
Grêmio scores 1.11 goals per game and allows 1.32. Fluminense scores 1.53 and allows 1.26. Games in this league average 2.64 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 58% of Grêmio's games and 74% of Fluminense's. The Over 2.5 rates are 42% and 53%, compared with league averages of 58% for BTTS and 50% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Fluminense has the higher season xG average, 1.71 to 1.23 per game. Grêmio takes 11.2 shots per game, while Fluminense takes 15.2.
First-half and second-half trends
Grêmio leads at halftime in 16% of its games and scores 0.68 goals per game after halftime. Fluminense leads at halftime in 47% and scores 0.79 after halftime.
When the teams score
Grêmio's most productive scoring window is minutes 46-60 (7 goals). For Fluminense, it is minutes 76-90+ (8 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Serie A games average 2.64 goals. Both teams score in 58% of games, and 50% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 3 previous meetings were available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 3 away wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back 1 — a Grêmio win. Home form: 56% wins, +4 goal difference at home, 1.67 goals scored on average and xG 1.58 with 14.56 shots and 5.0 on target per match. Fluminense away: only 22% wins, −2 goal difference on the road, 1.22 goals scored with xG 1.46 and lower shot conversion 9% despite 59% possession. Last 5 matches: Grêmio 9 goals and 1.4 points per game, Fluminense 7 goals and 1.6 points per game — comparable form but better chance conversion by the hosts (11% vs 9%). Defensively, Grêmio concedes 1.22 goals at home (xG against 1.52), while Fluminense concedes 1.44 away (xG against 1.61), giving a slight defensive edge to the hosts. Considering the higher home win rate, superior conversion and higher share of shots on target, I assess probabilities as: Home win 60%, Draw 25%, Away win 15%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes: the data strongly supports both teams scoring. Grêmio has a seasonal BTTS of 80% and Fluminense 67%, and in the last 5 matches both sides have BTTS at 80%, providing a strong, repeatable signal. Grêmio averages 1.8 goals scored and concedes 1.1 (attacking xG 1.95 vs conceded xG 1.16), while Fluminense scores 1.22 and concedes 1.44 (attacking xG 1.46 vs conceded xG 1.61), meaning both teams create and permit chances. In the last 5 matches Fluminense’s average attacking xG is 1.71, and Grêmio concedes xG 1.69 over the same period; additionally the hosts average 6.5 shots on target versus the visitors’ 4.67, confirming realistic scoring opportunities for both sides. Based on this I assign BTTS 78% vs 22% for No Goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model yields expected goals: Grêmio ~1.78 (xG_for 1.95 vs opponent xG_against 1.61), Fluminense ~1.31 (xG_for 1.46 vs home xG_against 1.16), combined ~3.09 goals. Season data confirm a goal-prone tendency — Over 1.5 occurred in 80% of Grêmio’s matches and 89% of Fluminense’s matches, while BTTS rates are 80% vs 67%, increasing the likelihood of goal exchanges. Grêmio averages 17.3 shots and 6.5 on target per match versus Fluminense’s 12.9/4.67, supporting higher home goal production (~1.78). Using a Poisson distribution for a total of 3.09 goals gives ~81% probability for over 1.5, ~60% for over 2.5 and ~37% for over 3.5, therefore I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is 1/1: Grêmio led at the break in 50% of their home matches and wins 70% of games, which places the home side as favorite at both Half-Time and Full-Time. At the break Grêmio averages 0.8 goals scored and concedes only 0.3 (clean sheet at half-time in 70% of matches), while Fluminense averages 0.67 scored and 0.56 conceded by half-time. The home advantage is also evident in xG (1.95 vs 1.46), total shots (17.3 vs 12.89) and shots on target (6.5 vs 4.67), translating into greater offensive pressure and a higher probability of maintaining a lead. Additionally, Grêmio dominate the second half at home (90% of matches with >0.5 goals in the second half and 6 goals in the 76–90' interval), while Fluminense have only a 22% away win rate and 44% away losses, making scenarios featuring an away lead the least likely.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Grêmio | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Fluminense is 50% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / game - Grêmio · 1.2 pts / game - Fluminense
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Fluminense is 38% better for: goals scored per game.
1.11 goals / game - Grêmio · 1.53 goals / game - Fluminense
Fluminense is 5% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.32 goals / game - Grêmio · 1.26 goals / game - Fluminense
Grêmio scores in 68% of games (13 of 19 meczów), while Fluminense keeps a clean sheet in 16% (3 of 19 meczów).
Fluminense scores in 89% of games (17 of 19 meczów), while Grêmio keeps a clean sheet in 26% (5 of 19 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Grêmio
Over / Under - Fluminense
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Fluminense is 60% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.05 pts / game - Grêmio · 1.68 pts / game - Fluminense
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Grêmio - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 16% of games and wins 26%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Fluminense - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 47% of games and wins 47%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.4 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Grêmio
Fluminense
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Grêmio | Liga | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.42 | 2.64 | ▲ 2.79 |
| Both teams scored | • 58% | 58% | ▲ 74% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 42% | 50% | ▲ 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 26% | 23% | ▼ 16% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 58% | 78% | • 79% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 68% | 77% | ▲ 84% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Grêmio's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses against Fluminense. Games average 2.33 goals, and both teams scored in 67% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Grêmio vs Fluminense?
The Serie A match finished Grêmio 1:1 Fluminense. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Grêmio and Fluminense?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Grêmio won 0, Fluminense won 3 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Grêmio vs Fluminense?
Grêmio score 1.11 goals per game on average and Fluminense 1.53. The Serie A average is 2.64 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 58% of Grêmio's matches and 74% of Fluminense's.
What form are Grêmio and Fluminense in?
Over the last 5 games Grêmio have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Fluminense 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Grêmio vs Fluminense?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Grêmio vs Fluminense: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.