Grêmio vs Palmeiras: match statistics

Palmeiras sit 2nd in the table and have lost just 3 of their 27 matches this season, while Grêmio have recorded 7 wins and 12 defeats in 26 games. The visitors are also in better recent form: they are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, drawing 3 and winning 2, while conceding just 1 goal during that run. Grêmio are, however, significantly more dangerous at home than their league position suggests, winning 54% of their home matches and averaging 1.69 goals per game, compared with Palmeiras’ 1.71 away from home. Palmeiras’ away defensive record is more solid, with an average of 0.86 goals conceded and clean sheets in 43% of matches, but as many as 36% of their away fixtures have ended in draws. Similar chance-creation figures—Grêmio’s xG of 1.54 compared with Palmeiras’ 1.42—along with the visitors’ strong defensive form point towards an evenly contested draw.

Seasonal BTTS figures are fairly high, standing at 62% for Grêmio and 57% for Palmeiras; however, the visitors’ current form clearly reduces the likelihood of both teams scoring. Palmeiras have scored only 4 goals in their last 5 matches, recorded BTTS in just 20% of games, and conceded just 1 goal in total—an average of 0.2 per match. Their defense has also been solid over a broader sample: they have kept a clean sheet in 43% of matches, while Grêmio have recently averaged 1.4 goals per game. The hosts have shown a weaker defense over their last five league fixtures, with an average xG conceded of 2.24, but Palmeiras’ low scoring output points to a significant risk that one side will fail to score. Therefore, the most likely scenario is BTTS - No, primarily due to the possibility of Grêmio being kept scoreless by the visitors’ well-performing defense.

Palmeiras have a very stable defense: they concede just 0.86 goals per game on average this season, keep a clean sheet in 43% of matches, and have conceded only 1 goal in their last five games. Grêmio score an average of 1.77 goals at home, but their recent output has dropped to 1.4 goals per match, with an xG of 1.25. The visitors are currently creating chances worth 1.78 xG per game, while Grêmio have allowed opponents 2.24 xG during this period, meaning Palmeiras should have a realistic chance of scoring around 1.22 goals. At the same time, Grêmio matches have gone Over 3.5 goals in only 15% of cases, compared with 36% for Palmeiras, which clearly strengthens the Under 3.5 goals option given the projected total of 2.22 goals. The Under 3.5 line also covers frequent scoreline scenarios such as 1:1, 1:0, or 1:2 and represents the strongest statistical signal.

The strongest HT/FT scenario is Grêmio leading at the break and securing a home win, as the team has won 69% of its matches compared with Palmeiras’ 50%, while averaging 1.77 goals per game. Grêmio held a Half-Time lead in 54% of its matches and conceded just 0.23 goals before the interval, whereas Palmeiras averaged 0.29 goals conceded in this phase. In their last five appearances, the hosts scored an average of 1.0 goals before half-time, compared with just 0.4 for the visitors, further strengthening Grêmio’s early-match advantage. Grêmio’s edge is also supported by its higher season xG: 1.71 versus Palmeiras’ 1.42, as well as 16.38 shots per match compared with the opponents’ 12.43. However, Palmeiras are difficult to beat, having conceded just 0.2 goals per game across their last five matches and drawn 60% of them. Therefore, the X/1 outcome—level at half-time followed by a Grêmio victory—remains a significant alternative.