Grom Nowy Staw vs Unia Swarzędz: match statistics

Unia Swarzędz has 4 wins in the last 5 matches and scored 13 goals (avg. 2.6 per match), while Grom Nowy Staw won 3 of 5 and scored 9 goals (1.8 per match). Both teams conceded 6 goals in those five fixtures, i.e. 1.2 goals per match on average, indicating comparable defensive issues. Points per game over the last 5 rounds are 2.4 for Unia versus 1.8 for Grom, which confirms the visitors' superior results efficiency. Season home and away stats in the provided data are blank (values 0), so the forecast is based mainly on trends from the last 5 matches; given Unia's greater offensive efficiency (13 vs 9) I give them a higher probability of victory.

In the hosts' last 5 matches BTTS occurred in 80% of games and for the visitors in 60% — the average of these two rates is 70%, indicating a tilt toward a both-teams-to-score scenario. Grom Nowy Staw in the last 5 games averaged 1.8 goals scored and conceded 1.2, while Unia Swarzędz averaged 2.6 goals scored and also conceded 1.2, so both teams regularly register goals and concede. This is supported by xG values: the home attack has 2.56 xG versus the away defense’s 1.16 xG against, and the away attack 2.23 xG versus the home defense’s 1.53 xG, showing each side creates quality chances against the opponent’s weaker defense. In the last 5 matches Grom scored 9 and conceded 6, and Unia 13 and 6 — both sides have a positive goal balance and good form (home: lwwwl, away: wwwwl), which further sustains BTTS. Considering the 70% average BTTS, the xG advantage and the goal averages 1.8 vs 2.6, I assess BTTS probability at 75% vs 25% and recommend the selection 'BTTS - Yes'.

In the last 5 matches Grom Nowy Staw scored an average of 1.8 goals, and Unia Swarzędz 2.6 goals, totaling 4.4 goals per match. xG metrics corroborate the attacking form: home xG was 2.56, away xG 2.23, combined 4.79 xG, so both expected and actual goals are high. Additionally, Over 2.5 occurred in 4 of 5 matches for both teams (80% each), and BTTS was recorded in 80% (Grom) and 60% (Unia) of recent games, increasing the likelihood of a goal-heavy contest. Averaging actual goals and xG, I project 2.10 goals for Grom and 2.40 for Unia, i.e. 4.50 goals total. Based on this, the strongest and most probable signal is Over 2.5 (I estimate ~83% probability), while the 1.5 line is almost certain (~94%), and Over 3.5 also has a solid probability (~66%).

Unia Swarzędz has the clearer form over the last 5 matches: they won 4 of 5 (80%) and average 2.6 goals per game, while Grom has 3 wins (60%) and averages 1.8 goals per game. Unia more frequently holds a lead at the break — in 60% of their last 5 fixtures — and averages 1.2 first-half goals, whereas Grom scores 0.6 goals by half-time and led at the break in 40% of cases. Additionally, both teams show increased activity after the break: the average number of goals in second halves over the last 5 matches is 2.4 for Unia and 2.2 for Grom, which favors turnarounds or decisive second-half outcomes. Based on this, I assign the highest probability to the scenario that Unia leads at the break and wins the match (HT/FT 2/2 — 34%); alternatively, a draw at half-time and an Unia win (X/2 — 20%) or a half-time/full-time draw (X/X — 13%) are less likely options.