Guaireña vs Atlético Tembetary: match statistics

Atlético Tembetary is a narrow favorite due to an advantage in offense: they have scored 24 goals this season versus Guaireña’s 18, and in the last 5 matches the visitors have 9 goals compared to the hosts’ 4. Tembetary’s efficiency is clearly superior — shot conversion is 16% versus 9% for Guaireña, and average xG for the visitors is 1.46 vs 1.37 for the hosts, which suggests the visitors both create and better convert chances. Guaireña, however, has home strengths: more shots on target per match (4.5 vs 3.25), a higher clean sheet rate (38% vs 13%) and a lower average of goals conceded at home (1.13 vs 1.38), which may complicate a straightforward win for the visitors. Form confirms this balance of power — Atlético averages 1.2 points per match in the last 5 fixtures versus 0.8 for Guaireña, and the visitors less frequently finish away matches goalless (25% of matches without scoring vs 50% for the hosts), so I expect Tembetary to score at least once. Considering the higher goal output, better conversion and higher xG, I tip Atlético Tembetary to win; estimated probabilities are: home 30%, draw 25% and away 45%.

Both teams show high seasonal BTTS rates: Guaireña 71% and Atlético Tembetary 63%, with Atlético recording BTTS 100% in the last 5 matches versus 60% for Guaireña. Seasonal goals averages indicate both sides score and concede: Guaireña 1.71 scored and 1.43 conceded, Atlético 1.50 scored and 1.38 conceded, promoting an exchange of goals. xG and shot metrics also support a both-teams-to-score outcome – last 5 matches xG 1.42 (Guaireña) and 1.54 (Atlético), xG against 1.41 and 1.87, and on average 3.0 and 3.25 shots on target. Clean sheets are rare (seasonal CS 14% and 13%), the league BTTS is 56%, and Atlético have scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches versus 4 for Guaireña, so the BTTS - Yes scenario is stronger.

Calculated xG (average of own attack and opponent’s defense) is 1.54 for Guaireña and 1.49 for Atlético Tembetary, totaling 3.03 expected goals. Seasonal scoring averages are 1.71 (Guaireña) vs 1.50 (Tembetary), with goals conceded at 1.43 and 1.38 respectively; seasonal Over 1.5 occurs in 71% of home matches and 75% of away matches, which combined strongly supports Over 1.5. Additionally, both teams show high BTTS rates: 71% (Guaireña) and 63% (Tembetary), and each team has 100% of matches with at least one goal; the home side’s high shot conversion of 20% (away 16%) increases the likelihood of chances being converted and at least two goals being scored. Over 2.5 has moderate backing — seasonal Over 2.5 is 43% for the home team and 50% for the away team, with the last 5 matches at 40% and 60% respectively, and a combined xG=3.03 implies an estimated ~60% probability for Over 2.5. Over 3.5 looks less certain: seasonal Over 3.5 is 43%/38% (avg ~41%), but individually teams scoring 4+ goals is rare (14% and 0%), therefore I assign Over 3.5 only a 33% probability and recommend backing Over on the 1.5 line as the strongest signal.

Guaireña scores on average 1.14 goals by half-time, Atlético Tembetary 0.63, but both teams frequently draw at half-time — the home side were level at the break in 57% of matches, the visitors in 50%. Over full matches Guaireña has a slight offensive edge: 1.71 goals per game versus 1.50 for their opponents and a better shot conversion rate (20% conversion vs 16%), which gives them an advantage in the second half. Guaireña led at the break in 43% of fixtures and were never losing at half-time (0% of cases), indicating stability and an ability to take the initiative after a draw. The counterargument is that Atlético scores more after the break (on average 1.88 second-half goals vs 1.43 for the hosts) and wins second halves in 38% of cases, so turnarounds (X/2) are possible, though statistically less likely. On this basis the strongest signal is a half-time draw with a home win at full-time (X/1).