Guangxi Hengchen vs Dalian Huayi: match statistics

Guangxi Hengchen holds a clear positional advantage (4th vs 13th for Dalian) and at home records a 60% win rate with an average of 1.4 goals scored per match and only 0.8 conceded. The hosts create more chances – their average xG is 1.64 versus the visitors’ 1.26 on the road, and home shots average 14.6 (5.2 on target) compared to 10 (2.8 on target) for Dalian. The visitors have a higher shot conversion rate (12% vs 10% for the hosts), but this is on fewer attempts and with an average of 1.4 goals conceded away (xG against 1.56), resulting in 0% clean sheets away versus 60% for the hosts. In the last 5 matches both teams scored 6 goals, however Guangxi has a better points return in that period (1.2 points per match vs 0.8 for Dalian) and is unbeaten at home in the last 5 league matches (3 wins, 2 draws). Considering the advantage in chance creation (xG 1.64 vs 1.26), a higher number of shots on target and a more solid home defense, I assess the probability of a home win at approximately 65%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 15%.

Statistical analysis indicates a clear BTTS signal: hosts have a season BTTS rate of 83% and visitors 60%, both above the league average of 54%. Hosts score 1.67 goals per game with xG 1.57 and concede 1.67 with xG against 1.29, while visitors score 1.20 with xG 1.26 and concede 1.40 with xG against 1.56, showing both teams create scoring chances and are vulnerable defensively. In the last 5 matches both sides have scored 6 goals each (1.2 average), but hosts conceded 2.0 on average versus 1.8 for visitors, increasing the risk of mutual goals. Additionally, hosts average 4.67 shots on target per game versus 2.8 for visitors, and clean sheet rates are low at 17% for hosts and 0% for visitors, which strongly supports goals from both sides. Considering seasonal 83% vs 60% BTTS, low clean sheets 17%/0% and xG 1.57 vs 1.26, I assess BTTS probability at 72% vs 28% and recommend a 'BTTS - Yes' bet as the strongest signal.

The model projects 1.57 goals for Guangxi and 1.28 for Dalian, totaling 2.85 goals; these values derive from both teams’ average xG (home xG 1.57 vs away defense xG 1.56; away xG 1.26 vs home defense xG 1.29). Guangxi averages 1.67 goals per match and records 4.67 shots on target, while Dalian has 1.20 goals and 2.8 shots on target, giving the hosts an advantage in chance creation. The stats indicate a strong propensity for goals: hosts have 83% of matches with both teams scoring, the visitors 60%, and in the last 5 matches both teams scored a combined 6 goals and conceded 10 (Guangxi) and 9 (Dalian) respectively. Seasonal over rates show over 1.5: 83% (Guangxi) and 60% (Dalian) and over 2.5: 50% and 60%, while the league averages 2.53 goals per game. With an expected total of 2.85 I estimate probabilities of over 1.5 ≈78%, over 2.5 ≈54% and over 3.5 ≈32%, therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and an away win (X/2). The home side drew at half-time in 83% of their matches, while the visitors won away in 40% of fixtures, which strongly signals a level score after 45 minutes followed by a decision in favor of the traveling team. The visitors average 1.4 points at half-time versus 0.83 for the hosts and led at the break in 40% of their away games, increasing the likelihood of them taking the initiative after the interval. Goal-related statistics show a high involvement of both teams in scoring situations — the hosts have a season-long percentage of both-teams-to-score matches of 83%, the visitors 60%, and average xG of 1.57 for the hosts versus 1.26 for the visitors — this suggests a draw at half-time with goals coming after the restart. Therefore I consider X/2 the best pick (assigned 33% probability); second is draw/draw (X/X 27%), while scenarios with the hosts leading at half-time received low probabilities due to the hosts’ 0% rate of leading at the break.