Guaraní vs Cerro Porteño: match statistics

Cerro Porteño are showing better current form: they have picked up 7 more points than Guaraní in their last five matches (10 versus 6), winning 3 games and conceding just 4 goals. The visitors are also creating slightly more high-quality chances away from home, with an average xG of 1.45 compared with Guaraní’s 1.38 at home, while also averaging 5 shots on target per match against 4 for the hosts. However, home advantage favors Guaraní, who win 50% of their home matches, score an average of 1.44 goals and concede just 1.00, whereas Cerro Porteño lose as many as 43% of their away games. Both teams have a very similar average number of goals scored in these conditions (1.44 for Guaraní and 1.43 for Cerro Porteño), while the hosts have drawn 3 of their last 5 matches. A closely contested draw therefore appears the most likely outcome, although the visitors’ strong recent run makes them a genuine threat.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Guaraní’s defense, which concedes just 0.56 goals per match on average and keeps a clean sheet in 56% of its games. BTTS has landed in only 31% of the hosts’ matches this season, well below Cerro Porteño’s 57% and the league average of 54%. Cerro Porteño scores an average of 1.43 goals and creates chances worth 1.45 xG, but fails to score in 29% of away matches, which is a significant risk against such a solid defense. The recent form of both sides has been more open, with BTTS occurring in 60% of their last five matches; however, Guaraní has still conceded only 1.0 goal per game during this period. A scenario in which at least one team fails to score therefore remains more likely than both teams finding the net.

Guaraní have an exceptionally solid home defense, conceding an average of just 0.56 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in 56% of games. Across the entire season, none of Guaraní’s matches exceeded the Over 3.5 goals line, while Over 3.5 goals occurred in 36% of Cerro Porteño’s matches. The teams’ last five games confirm a moderate tempo: Guaraní scored 6 and conceded 5 goals, while Cerro Porteño scored 7 and conceded 4, averaging approximately 2.2 goals per match. Estimated totals of 1.25 goals for the home side and 0.95 for the visitors point to a scoreline closer to 1:1 or 1:0 than to an open, high-scoring game. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5 goals, supported by Guaraní’s defensive strength and the very low historical frequency of high-scoring results in their home matches.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome, as Guaraní concede an average of just 0.25 goals before the break at home, while Cerro Porteño concede 0.43 away from home. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in the first half in 75% of their matches, compared with 64% for the visitors, which points to a cautious opening. After the break, the advantage should shift towards Guaraní: they score an average of 0.63 goals and concede just 0.31, while Cerro Porteño allow opponents an average of 0.93 goals. Guaraní have won the second half in 44% of matches, compared with just 21% for Cerro Porteño, and their post-break goal difference stands at +5 versus -4 for the visitors. Cerro Porteño’s current form is good, with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, but the hosts’ defensive profile and the visitors’ weakness after the break most strongly support the X/1 HT/FT outcome.