Guaraní vs Libertad: match statistics
Guaraní vs Libertad: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Guaraní played against Libertad in Division Profesional (Paraguay). The game was played on August 2, 2026. Venue: Estadio Rogelio Lorenzo Livieres. Final score: 2:1.
Recent form
Guaraní has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.40 points per game. Libertad has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 2.00 points per game.
Scoring records
Guaraní scores 1.21 goals per game and allows 1.04. Libertad scores 1.63 and allows 1.13. Games in this league average 2.46 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 46% of Guaraní's games and 42% of Libertad's. The Over 2.5 rates are 42% and 46%, compared with league averages of 52% for BTTS and 43% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Libertad has the higher season xG average, 1.52 to 1.26 per game. Guaraní takes 11.3 shots per game, while Libertad takes 14.3.
First-half and second-half trends
Guaraní leads at halftime in 29% of its games and scores 0.71 goals per game after halftime. Libertad leads at halftime in 25% and scores 1.00 after halftime.
When the teams score
Guaraní's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (11 goals). For Libertad, it is minutes 46-60 (9 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Division Profesional games average 2.46 goals. Both teams score in 52% of games, and 43% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 6 previous meetings were available. The record was 3 home wins, 1 draw and 2 away wins. Those games averaged 3.17 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back Guaraní to win: the hosts win 50% of home matches and have a positive goal differential at the stadium (+5), while Libertad wins only 33% of away games. Guaraní’s defense looks more solid — the hosts concede on average 0.92 goals per game versus Libertad’s 1.25 on the road. In attack both teams average 1.33 goals, however Libertad produces higher away xG (1.52 vs 1.32) and more shots (14.75 vs 12), indicating an edge in chance creation. Nevertheless Libertad has a higher share of goalless away matches (42% vs 33%), and in the last 5 fixtures both sides have scored only 3 goals and recorded just 1 win each, pointing to limited form. Considering the hosts’ stronger defense and Guaraní’s higher shot efficiency (11% conversion vs 9% for Libertad), the hosts are the favorites.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal BTTS rates are 45% for Guaraní and 33% for Libertad, both below the league average of 53%, indicating a lower-than-average probability of BTTS - Yes. Libertad failed to score in 42% of matches this season, while Guaraní kept a clean sheet in 45% of fixtures; combined these figures point to a realistic likelihood that at least one team will not score. Despite similar seasonal attacking xG (1.49 for Guaraní vs 1.52 for Libertad), over the last 5 matches both teams are averaging only 0.6 goals, with Libertad conceding 1.4 on average versus 1.0 for Guaraní, demonstrating a drop in finishing and defensive susceptibility of opponents. Shot-on-target stats 5.55 vs 4.58 and conversion rates 13% vs 9% give the hosts an edge toward a single goal, but do not offset Libertad’s high percentage of goalless games. Considering these numbers, I assess the probability of No BTTS at 65% versus 35% for BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG analysis shows Guaraní has an attacking xG of 1.49 versus opponents’ xG allowed of 1.24, implying an expected 1.37 goals for the home side; Libertad has an attacking xG of 1.52 versus opponents’ xG allowed of 1.20, implying about 1.36 goals for the away side, totaling approximately 2.73 goals. A Poisson model with mean 2.73 estimates Over 1.5 at ~76%, Over 2.5 at ~52% and Over 3.5 at ~30%. Season stats support a tendency toward at least 2 goals: Guaraní has 55% of matches over 1.5, Libertad 67%, while the league records 42% of matches over 2.5. Additionally both teams average 13.18 and 14.75 shots and 5.55 and 4.58 shots on target, with the home side having a 13% conversion rate versus 9% for the away; on the other hand, in the last 5 matches both sides have averaged only 0.6 goals, which limits confidence on higher overs. As a result the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is an Over 1.5 play (line 1.5, side 'over') with an estimated probability of 76% and an expected total of 2.73 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Guaraní victory at full-time (X/1) — the home side drew at the break in 55% of matches and Libertad in 50%, so HT is most often a draw. After the break Guaraní averages 1.0 goal in the second half versus 0.83 for Libertad, and the hosts have a 55% win rate at home compared to a 33% away win rate for the visitors, which favors a Guaraní full-time win. Guaraní averages 5.55 shots on target vs 4.58 for Libertad and has a higher conversion rate (13% vs 9%) with a similar xG (1.49 vs 1.52); additionally the hosts scored 4 goals in minutes 31–45 versus 2 for the visitors in that interval, indicating greater threat from the hosts just before and after the break. Although the hosts lead at the break in 36% of matches (the visitors only 17%), the high proportion of HT draws (55%/50%) makes X/1 a stronger signal than 1/1; scenarios with a visitor comeback are unlikely given Libertad’s weaker away form (points per away match 1.08 vs 1.91 for Guaraní).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Guaraní | Libertad | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Libertad is 43% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / game - Guaraní · 2 pts / game - Libertad
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Libertad is 35% better for: goals scored per game.
1.21 goals / game - Guaraní · 1.63 goals / game - Libertad
Guaraní is 9% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.04 goals / game - Guaraní · 1.13 goals / game - Libertad
Guaraní scores in 67% of games (16 of 24 games), while Libertad keeps a clean sheet in 33% (8 of 24 games).
Libertad scores in 71% of games (17 of 24 games), while Guaraní keeps a clean sheet in 38% (9 of 24 games).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Guaraní
Over / Under - Libertad
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Guaraní is 7% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.38 pts / game - Guaraní · 1.29 pts / game - Libertad
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Guaraní - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 29% of games and wins 33%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Libertad - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 25% of games and wins 46%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +5 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (9 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Guaraní
Libertad
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Division Profesional).
Teams vs league
| Guaraní | Liga | Libertad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.25 | 2.46 | ▲ 2.75 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 46% | 52% | ▼ 42% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 42% | 43% | ▲ 46% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 38% | 28% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 54% | 62% | ▼ 58% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 71% | 80% | • 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Record from Guaraní's perspective: 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses against Libertad. Games average 3.17 goals, and both teams scored in 50% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Guaraní vs Libertad?
The Division Profesional match finished Guaraní 2:1 Libertad. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Guaraní and Libertad?
In the last 6 head-to-head matches Guaraní won 3, Libertad won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.17 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Guaraní vs Libertad?
Guaraní score 1.21 goals per game on average and Libertad 1.63. The Division Profesional average is 2.46 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 43% of games. Both teams score in 46% of Guaraní's matches and 42% of Libertad's.
What form are Guaraní and Libertad in?
Over the last 5 games Guaraní have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Libertad 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Guaraní vs Libertad?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.