Guaraní vs Nacional Asunción: match statistics
Guaraní vs Nacional Asunción: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Guaraní play Nacional Asunción in Division Profesional (Paraguay). The match date is 4 May 2026 at 01:00. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Guaraní: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Nacional Asunción: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Guaraní scores 1.23 and concedes 1.05 goals per match. Nacional Asunción scores 1.41 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.44 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Guaraní 45%, Nacional Asunción 68%. Over 2.5: Guaraní 41%, Nacional Asunción 45%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 43%.
xG, shots and style
Nacional Asunción has higher xG: 1.34 vs 1.24. Guaraní: 11.0 shots per match, Nacional Asunción: 12.6.
Match halves
Guaraní: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 0.68. Nacional Asunción: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.86.
Goals by minute
Guaraní: 76-90+ (10 goals). Nacional Asunción: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Division Profesional: 2.44 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 43%.
Head-to-head
5 H2H matches: 3-1-1. Average goals 2.20, BTTS 60%.
Match description
I predict a Guaraní win (1) — hosts average 1.56 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per home match, have a 56% home win rate and a +6 goal difference. Nacional away scores 1.11 on average, concedes 1.22 and has only a 22% away win rate with as many as 56% draws, and an away goal difference of -1. In the last 5 matches Guaraní scored 7 goals, won 3 times and averages 2.0 points per game, while Nacional scored 4 goals, won once and averages 1.2 points per game; visitors conceded 6 goals, hosts 4. Quality-of-chance metrics favor the hosts — Guaraní xG at home is 1.37 versus 1.23 xG for Nacional away; hosts average 4.67 shots on target per match at a 13% conversion rate versus 3.89 and 9% for the visitors. Considering superior conversion and better form, I estimate a 55% chance of a Guaraní win, 30% for a draw and 15% for a Nacional victory.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Guaraní | Nacional Asunción | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nacional Asunción is 160% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Guaraní · 2.6 pts / match - Nacional Asunción
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nacional Asunción is 15% better for: goals scored per match.
1.23 goals / match - Guaraní · 1.41 goals / match - Nacional Asunción
Nacional Asunción is 5% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.05 goals / match - Guaraní · 1 goals / match - Nacional Asunción
Guaraní scores in 64% of matches (14 of 22 matches), while Nacional Asunción keeps a clean sheet in 27% (6 of 22 matches).
Nacional Asunción scores in 86% of matches (19 of 22 matches), while Guaraní keeps a clean sheet in 36% (8 of 22 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Guaraní
Over / Under — Nacional Asunción
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Guaraní is 24% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.41 pts / match - Guaraní · 1.14 pts / match - Nacional Asunción
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Guaraní - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 32%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Nacional Asunción - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 45%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goli). Concedes most in 0-15 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Guaraní
Nacional Asunción
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Division Profesional).
Teams vs league
| Guaraní | Liga | Nacional Asunción | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.27 | 2.44 | • 2.41 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 45% | 51% | ▲ 68% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 41% | 43% | ▲ 45% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 36% | 29% | ▼ 27% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 59% | 63% | ▲ 68% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 68% | 78% | ▼ 73% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Guaraní 3 - 1 - 1 Nacional Asunción. Average goals 2.20, both teams scored in 60% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Guaraní vs Nacional Asunción?
The Division Profesional match finished Guaraní 0:1 Nacional Asunción. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Guaraní and Nacional Asunción?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Guaraní won 3, Nacional Asunción won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.20 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Guaraní vs Nacional Asunción?
Guaraní score 1.23 goals per game on average and Nacional Asunción 1.41. The Division Profesional average is 2.44 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 43% of games. Both teams score in 45% of Guaraní's matches and 68% of Nacional Asunción's.
What form are Guaraní and Nacional Asunción in?
Over the last 5 games Guaraní have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Nacional Asunción 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Guaraní vs Nacional Asunción?
The statistical background for Guaraní vs Nacional Asunción — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.