Gyeongnam vs Seongnam: match statistics

Gyeongnam has a clearly better home record: they win 50% of their home matches, while Seongnam win only 33% of their away games and lose 42%. The hosts average 1.67 goals per home match, compared with Seongnam’s 1.25 away goals, and are also more efficient at converting shots into goals — 13% versus 10% for the visitors. Both teams create chances of a similar quality, with average xG of 1.43 for Gyeongnam and 1.44 for Seongnam, but the hosts’ defense allows a lower opponent xG: 1.25 compared with 1.37. Seongnam are in slightly better current form, scoring 6 goals and collecting 8 points in their last five matches, while Gyeongnam have scored 4 times and earned 6 points. Despite this, home advantage, better season-long efficiency and the visitors’ weaker defense, which keeps a clean sheet in only 8% of away matches, provide a slight edge to Gyeongnam.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, as BTTS occurred in 55% of Gyeongnam’s matches and as many as 75% of Seongnam’s, compared with the league average of 62%. The trend is even stronger across the last five outings, in which both teams scored in 60% and 80% of matches, respectively. Seongnam have kept a clean sheet in only 8% of matches and concede an average of 1.42 goals, which supports the likelihood of the hosts scoring despite their modest average of 1.0 goal per game. The visitors average 1.25 goals, while Gyeongnam have allowed opponents an xG of 1.80 over their last five matches, well above their season average of 1.36. Although Gyeongnam have shown solid defensive form, conceding an average of 0.91 goals, the combination of Seongnam’s high BTTS frequency and the visitors’ poor clean-sheet record points towards a BTTS - Yes scenario.

Gyeongnam score an average of 1.00 goals at home and concede just 0.91, while Seongnam score 1.25 goals away but allow opponents 1.42. In their last five matches, the hosts have scored just 8 goals in total, averaging 1.60 per game, and none of those matches produced more than 2 goals. Seongnam have greater potential for an open game, as 58% of their matches went Over 2.5 goals, but only 25% went Over 3.5, while Gyeongnam’s Over 3.5 rate stands at just 18%. Both teams produce around 3.8 shots on target per game, and the projected total of 2.35 goals points more towards a scoreline of 1:1, 2:0 or 2:1 than a game featuring at least four goals. Therefore, Under 3.5 goals is best supported by the hosts’ low number of high-scoring matches and the moderate attacking efficiency of both teams.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time, as Gyeongnam drew as many as 55% of their matches this season and shared the points in 60% of their last five games. The first half should be cautious: the hosts concede an average of just 0.27 goals before the break, and in their last five matches they went into half-time level on 100% of occasions. Seongnam also has a profile conducive to an evenly balanced opening, having been level at half-time in 42% of their matches and keeping a clean sheet before the break in 80% of their last five outings. After the interval, both teams are more likely to concede, but Gyeongnam finished the second half level in as many as 82% of matches, limiting the visitors’ advantage despite their stronger recent form. Seongnam averages 1.25 goals per match but concedes 1.42 away from home, so following an evenly contested first half, the most logical outcome remains a share of the points.