Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Beitar Jerusalem: match statistics

Hapoel Tel Aviv have the better record over their last five matches, collecting 7 points from 2 wins and a draw, while Beitar Jerusalem have managed just 4 points and lost 3 times. The hosts have scored 5 goals during this period, but their key advantage lies in their defensive solidity, having conceded only 4 goals—an average of 0.8 per match. Beitar have scored 9 goals in their five appearances, but have also conceded as many as 13, resulting in a highly unfavorable average of 2.6 goals per game. In addition, the visitors opened the season with a 1:4 defeat, highlighting that their problems with out-of-possession organization are also evident in the latest data. With more stable form and home advantage, Hapoel should have the stronger chance of securing a narrow victory.

The BTTS - Yes signal is driven primarily by Beitar’s current form: the visitors have scored in each of their last 5 matches, averaging 1.8 goals and 2.03 xG. At the same time, they conceded as many as 2.6 goals per game during this period, so Hapoel, who average 1.34 xG and 13 shots at home, have a clear chance to score. Hapoel averaged 1.0 goals across their last five appearances, while their opponents conceded just 0.8 goals per match, which does not provide complete confidence on the home side. Nevertheless, Beitar have landed BTTS in 100% of their last 5 matches, compared with a league average of 60%, and the visitors’ very poor defense further supports the scenario of both teams scoring. Therefore, it is more likely that neither team will finish the match without scoring.

The latest five matches indicate the attacking potential of both sides: Hapoel averaged 1.70 xG, while Beitar recorded as much as 2.03 xG. Beitar scored 1.8 goals per match during this period but also conceded 2.6, clearly increasing Hapoel’s chances of finding the net. The hosts had at least three goals in only 40% of their matches, but all five of Beitar’s latest games went Over this line, while both teams have a combined projection of 3.10 goals. Over 1.5 is the safest choice, as even after adjusting for Hapoel’s improved recent defensive record of 0.8 goals conceded per match, both teams’ xG data strongly support a minimum of two goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Hapoel Tel Aviv victory, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 40% of their last five matches, compared with 60% for Beitar. During this period, Hapoel conceded just 0.2 goals before the break, while Beitar averaged 1.0 goal scored, pointing to an even, though not necessarily goalless, opening half. After the break, the advantage shifts towards the hosts: Beitar conceded an average of 2.0 goals in second halves and lost that period in 80% of their recent matches. Hapoel have the better recent points form, averaging 1.4 points per match compared with their opponents’ 0.8, while the hosts’ defense allowed just 0.8 goals conceded per full match across their last five appearances. The risk of a Beitar victory remains noticeable, as the visitors have recently scored 1.8 goals per match, but their average of 2.6 goals conceded significantly reduces their chances of holding onto a favourable result until full-time.