Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Petah Tikva: match statistics

Hapoel Tel Aviv are unbeaten in their three league matches so far, with a record of 2 wins and 1 draw, scoring seven goals without conceding. At home, the hosts have won both fixtures, averaging 3.5 goals scored, allowing opponents just 0.8 xG and keeping two clean sheets. Hapoel Petah Tikva, meanwhile, have lost 3 of their 4 matches this season, including both away fixtures, scoring only 0.5 goals and conceding 1.5 per game on average. The difference in attacking quality is further highlighted by the hosts’ 7.5 shots on target per home match compared with the visitors’ 2.5, while their respective conversion rates stand at 16% and 4%. The visitors have failed to score in 50% of their away matches, making Hapoel Tel Aviv the clear favorite in this derby.

The strongest signal points toward BTTS - No, as Hapoel Tel Aviv have recorded 0% of matches with both teams scoring this season and also 0% in their last five fixtures. The hosts have conceded just 0.2 goals per match during this run and kept a clean sheet in 50% of their league games, while Hapoel Petah Tikva have averaged only 0.4 goals scored. The visitors have averaged 0.5 goals per match this season and failed to score in 50% of their appearances, significantly limiting their chances of breaching the opposition’s recently solid defense. Although their average xG stands at 1.55 compared with the hosts’ 0.78, this translates into just 2.5 shots on target per match, while their shot conversion rate is only 4%. The visitors’ BTTS rate over their last five matches is 20%, well below the league average of 59%, making the scenario in which at least one team fails to score the more likely outcome.

The match profile points to a limited number of goals: both teams are averaging just 0.5 goals per game in the current campaign. Hapoel Tel Aviv are, however, in strong defensive form, conceding only 0.2 goals per match across their last 5 appearances, while Hapoel Petah Tikva have scored just 0.4 goals during this period. The visitors are creating more chances than their scoring record suggests, with an average xG of 1.09 in their last 5 matches, but the hosts are allowing opponents only 1.03 xG. Hapoel Tel Aviv have the potential to score around 1.22 goals, supported by an xG of 1.73 across their five most recent matches, but the total projection of 1.85 goals remains well below the 3.5 line. In addition, neither team has recorded a match with over 3.5 goals so far, making Under 3.5 the strongest pick.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Hapoel Tel Aviv win after the match, as both teams were level at the break in 80% of their last five games. During this period, each side scored just 0.2 goals before half-time, conceded none, and found the net in the first half in only 1 of 5 matches. After the break, the home side improves significantly: over their last five games, they averaged 1.2 goals scored and 0.2 conceded, while Petah Tikva averaged 0.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. Hapoel Tel Aviv also have the better current points form, averaging 1.6 points per match compared with their opponents’ 0.6, while the visitors have lost 80% of their last five appearances. Although the visitors’ previous xG average stands at 1.55 compared with the hosts’ 0.78, their poor finishing and defensive performance after half-time support a home-side turnaround after the interval.