Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: match statistics

The visitors from Maccabi possess a clearly stronger offense this season — 66 goals versus Hapoel’s 51 — and in the last 5 matches they have scored 11 goals (2.2 per game) and averaged 2.4 points per game, while Hapoel has 5 goals (1.0 per game) and 1.2 points per game. Nevertheless, Hapoel are exceptionally stable at home: on average 2.07 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded per match, 53% clean sheets and 87% home wins this season. In chance quality Maccabi have the edge — away xG 1.90 versus the home side’s 1.57 and 5.93 shots on target per game vs 4.43 — which increases their goal potential despite a higher average of goals conceded (1.13 away). Differences in form (Hapoel 1.2 pts/5 matches vs Maccabi 2.4 pts/5 matches) and recent finishing efficiency (5 vs 11 goals) favor the visitors, but Hapoel’s solid home defense should neutralize most threats. Therefore I expect a close match with the home side as a minimal favorite.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are high: Hapoel 63% and Maccabi 60% versus league value 54%, favoring a Both Teams To Score scenario. Both teams show strong attacking output this season combined with defensive vulnerability — Hapoel averages 2.06 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per match, Maccabi 2.20 scored and 1.13 conceded — so both sides frequently feature in goalful games. xG and shooting data confirm offensive pressure: attacking xG 2.02 vs 1.90 and xG conceded 1.18 vs 1.27, with average on-target shots 5.88 vs 5.93 and total shots 16.31 vs 15.79, suggesting regular chance creation. Short-term risk should be considered — in the last 5 matches Hapoel has 0% BTTS with 5 scored and 4 conceded (1.0 avg scored/0.8 avg conceded), while Maccabi in the last 5 has 40% BTTS and 11 scored and 5 conceded (2.2/1.0), which reduces confidence. Given the dominant seasonal signal 63%/60% and supporting xG and shot metrics, I recommend a BTTS - Yes tip with an assessed probability 70% vs 30% for No.

Statistical analysis indicates a strong goal potential: Hapoel scores an average of 2.06 goals/match, Maccabi 2.20; their offensive xG are 2.02 (Hapoel) and 1.90 (Maccabi), while xG against are 1.27 (Maccabi defense) and 1.18 (Hapoel defense). Based on this, expected goals are approximately 1.65 for the home side and 1.54 for the visitors, totaling 3.19 goals. Season-long metrics confirm a high-scoring trend: Over 1.5 occurred in 81% of Hapoel’s matches and 80% of Maccabi’s, Over 2.5 in 69% and 67%, and both-teams-to-score in 63% and 60% of cases. A Poisson model for a mean of 3.19 yields probabilities of Over 1.5 ≈83%, Over 2.5 ≈62% and Over 3.5 ≈40%, so the strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5. Note that Hapoel has averaged 1.0 goal in the last 5 matches (vs 2.2 for Maccabi) and the home form (lwwll) is weaker than the visitors’ (wwwlw), which is a risk factor, but does not negate the edge for Over 1.5.

I forecast a 2/2 scenario — the visitors (Maccabi) lead at the break and ultimately win. The main arguments are that the visitors led at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches (60%) and scored 10 first-half goals in those five games compared to 4 by the hosts; additionally, Maccabi have won 4 of their last 5 matches (80%). The hosts are indeed active after the break — they score an average of 1.31 goals in second halves and have a 56% second-half win rate — however the visitors concede only 0.5 goals on average after the break and score 2.2 goals per game on the season, which makes it easier for them to hold the lead. Therefore I assign the highest probability to the 2/2 outcome (32%), while still accounting for a real, albeit smaller, chance of a turnaround after the break (2/1 — 13%) or a draw after the break (2/X — 8%).