Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Tel Aviv: match statistics

I back the home side (1) — Maccabi Tel Aviv holds a clear offensive and home advantage: at home they average 2.08 goals per game (xG 2.08), register 6.08 shots on target and win 54% of home matches, whereas Hapoel on the road scores 1.46 goals (xG 1.61), has 4.85 shots on target and wins only 23% of away games. Maccabi have scored 13 goals in the last 5 matches (2.6 per game), while Hapoel only 4 (0.8), confirming the hosts’ superiority in chance creation, although the hosts conceded 10 goals in those 5 fixtures (2.0 per game). Hapoel, however, shows an impressive defensive run — in the last 5 matches they have not conceded and maintain 31% clean sheets away with an average of 1.31 goals conceded on the road, which limits the risk of a heavy defeat. Additionally, Maccabi have not failed to score at home (FTS 0%), and Hapoel have 38% of away matches without a goal, so I expect the hosts to have the offensive edge but also a realistic risk of a draw; on that basis I assign 56% to a Maccabi win, 28% to a draw and 16% to a Hapoel win.

Maccabi Tel Aviv at home concedes only 0.69 goals per match on average and records as many as 54% clean sheets, while scoring 2.08 goals per season on average, whereas Hapoel averages 1.46 goals and fails to score in 38% of matches. This favors the “No Goal” scenario, since the high percentage of home clean sheets (54%) combined with 38% of matches in which the away side doesn’t score significantly reduces BTTS - Yes probability. On the other hand, the league average BTTS is 57% and Hapoel’s season BTTS is 54%, and the teams’ xG are nearly identical (1.62 vs 1.61), indicating both sides create scoring chances. The last 5 matches give mixed signals — Maccabi has 100% BTTS in L5 with an average of 2.6 scored and 2.0 conceded, while Hapoel has 0% BTTS in L5 with 0.8 scored and 0.0 conceded on average, which further reduces confidence in a “Yes”. Weighing the home side’s season-long defensive resilience and the high frequency of no-goal games for the visitors, I assign a higher probability to the “No Goal” scenario (60%) than to “BTTS - Yes” (40%).

The xG-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Maccabi Tel Aviv and 1.40 for Hapoel Tel Aviv, totaling 2.84. With that total, a Poisson distribution implies roughly a 78% chance of at least 2 goals in the match (Over 1.5) and about a 54% chance for Over 2.5. Seasonal figures support this: Maccabi averages 2.08 goals and records Over 1.5 in 85% of matches, Hapoel averages 1.46 and has Over 1.5 in 69% of games; both teams hit Over 2.5 in 54% of cases. Additionally, Maccabi concedes on average 0.69 goals and has a shot conversion rate of 16% versus Hapoel’s 11%, while Hapoel generated xG of 1.71 across the last 5 matches but scored only 0.8 goals on average, suggesting goals could increase if finishing normalizes. As a result, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (recommended), whereas Over 3.5 is considerably less likely (~32% per the model, 31% seasonally).

Maccabi Tel Aviv are clear favorites: over the season they average 2.08 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per match; at home they have a 92% win rate and average 2.77 points per match compared to Hapoel's 1.15 points with 1.46 goals scored and 1.31 conceded. At half-time the hosts often go into the break level — Maccabi led at the break in 42% of home games, while a half-time draw occurred in 58% of their matches; the visitors led at half-time in only 15% and were trailing in 31%. Second halves strongly favor Maccabi: they score on average 1.50 goals after the break, concede 0.33 and win 83% of second halves, indicating frequent turnarounds from draws after half-time. Additionally xG is similar (1.62 vs 1.61), but the hosts’ better conversion rate (16% versus 11%) and a comparable number of shots (14.08 vs 13.85) support Maccabi’s efficiency. As a result the strongest signal is a half-time draw and a home win at full-time (X/1) — I assign this scenario a 36% probability, while 1/1 is rated at 33% and X/X at 16%.