HJK vs TPS: match statistics

HJK is the favorite in this match: the hosts have scored 27 goals this season versus TPS’s 20, and at home they average 1.5 goals per game while TPS average only 0.71 goals per away match. The difference in quality of chances is clear — HJK register 4.63 shots on target at home with an 11% conversion rate, whereas TPS have 3.71 shots on target away and only a 6% conversion, meaning the hosts convert their chances into goals almost twice as often. Defensively the hosts also look stronger: HJK concede 1.38 goals per home game and keep 38% clean sheets, while TPS concede 1.43 goals away and have only 14% clean sheets; furthermore the visitors have yet to record an away win (0% away wins). In the last 5 matches HJK average 1.8 points per game and have won 3 of the last 5, while TPS average 1.4 points per game with only 2 wins in that period, confirming the home advantage. Considering the superior efficiency (11% vs 6%), the lower share of matches without scoring (25% vs 43%) and the favorable home record (50% wins and a +1 goal difference versus -5 away), I forecast a HJK victory.

Both teams have season BTTS rates of 56% (HJK at home) and 57% (TPS away), providing a baseline signal for BTTS - Yes. HJK score an average of 1.67 goals at home, register 4.89 shots on target and a conversion rate of 15%, so the hosts are likely to find the net. TPS away have a low goals average of 0.71 and only 6% conversion, but their xG_for_avg_away is 1.5 (last 5 matches xG 1.79), indicating chance creation despite poor finishing. HJK have kept a clean sheet in 44% of home matches, while TPS have a clean sheet rate away of only 14%, so the hosts’ defensive potential limits BTTS, but the xG balance and seasonal BTTS rates (56–57%) prevail. On this basis I assign 58% to BTTS = Yes and 42% to BTTS = No, selecting the more likely “Yes.”

The model combining xG and goals-per-game projects 1.48 expected goals for HJK and 1.18 for TPS, totaling 2.66 goals. This is near the league average of 2.67 and clearly above the 1.5 threshold, while slightly above the 2.5 threshold. Season-long stats show HJK with Over 1.5 in 78% of matches, TPS in 57% (average 68%), and in the last 5 matches both teams produced Over 2.5 in 80% of cases, reinforcing the goals forecast. Additionally, HJK scores 1.67 goals per game with a 15% shot conversion rate versus TPS’s 0.71 goals and 6% conversion, and xG of 1.41 (HJK) and 1.50 (TPS) — these figures indicate both sides create chances with conversion potential. On this basis the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (≈80% probability), although Over 2.5 is also supported (≈68%) by the 2.66 expected goals and recent form; I recommend playing Over 1.5.

Statistics clearly favor HJK: the hosts win 67% of home matches and score an average of 1.67 goals per game versus 0.71 for TPS, while HJK’s season average points is 2.11 compared to 0.43 for TPS. At Half-Time HJK score on average 0.78 goals, with TPS only 0.29; in the last 5 matches HJK led at the break in 60% of games whereas TPS did so in 20%. HJK in the second half score on average 0.89 goals and concede 0.44, and the home side’s shot conversion rate is 15% versus 6% for TPS, which suggests maintaining or increasing the lead. Although the away xG is 1.5 versus 1.41 for the hosts, TPS’s low conversion and 0% away wins in the seasonal data limit their realistic chances, therefore the most likely scenario is HJK leading at the break and winning the match (1/1), with an alternative scenario of a draw at Half-Time followed by an HJK turnaround to win (X/1).