HNK Vukovar 1991 vs Varaždin: match statistics

Varaždin (4th) is favored based on season-long metrics: the visitors have scored 43 and conceded 46, while HNK Vukovar 1991 (10th) have 34 scored and 65 conceded, yielding goal differences of -3 versus -31. Varaždin have won 13 matches this season compared to Vukovar’s 6, confirming the visitors’ greater ability to turn matches in their favor. Nonetheless, the hosts generate slightly more dangerous chances at home: Vukovar’s average xG is 1.46 with 4 shots on target per game and a conversion rate around 12%, versus the visitors’ xG of 1.26, 3.53 shots on target and 11% conversion on the road. Both teams have scored 6 goals in their last 5 matches and average 1.4 points in that period (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), however Vukovar’s defense is weaker – the hosts concede 1.71 goals on average at home, while Varaždin concede 1.47 away. Considering the visitors’ advantage in total wins (13 vs 6) and far smaller negative goal difference, I expect a Varaždin victory; probability distribution: 45% away, 30% home, 25% draw.

Both teams have season BTTS at 65%, and 60% in their last 5 matches each, which is a strong historical signal for both teams to score. HNK Vukovar averages 1.41 goals for and concedes 1.24 per match, Varaždin scores 1.12 and concedes 1.47; additionally xG is 1.45 vs xG against 1.63 for Vukovar and 1.26 vs 1.78 for Varaždin, indicating creation and allowance of clear scoring chances. Shot statistics confirm offensive activity: Vukovar averages 12.47 shots with 3.88 on target, Varaždin 10.47 with 3.53 on target, with a conversion rate of 11% for both teams. Low clean sheet rates (29% for the home side and 18% for the away) and relatively low percentages of matches without scoring (teams failed to score in 12% and 24% of cases) increase the likelihood both sides will find the net. Considering the above figures and the combined historical BTTS of 65%, I forecast BTTS - Yes with a probability of 70% versus 30% for No Goal.

The xG model and match stats give 1.62 xG for HNK Vukovar 1991 and 1.45 xG for Varaždin, totaling 3.07 expected goals, which indicates an elevated goal count for the fixture. Both teams have 82% of matches with over 1.5 goals this season (seasonOver15Percentage_home and away = 82%) and 65% of matches with goals from both teams (BTTS = 65%), while 94% of matches finish above 0.5 goals, strongly favoring Over 1.5. The 2.5 line is more balanced — seasonally Over 2.5 is 47% for the home side and 53% for the away side, but the hosts’ last 5 matches show 80% Over 2.5, so I rate Over 2.5 at a moderate ~63% chance. Over 3.5 remains unlikely (seasonally 29% for both teams) and the expected 3.07 goals is below the 3.5 threshold, so Under 3.5 is safer. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is a bet on Over 1.5 (estimated ~86% probability).

At half-time the score is most often level — both teams have draws at the break in 47% of matches, with home sides averaging 0.76 goals by half-time versus 0.71 for away teams. Over the full 90 minutes the home team performs better: they win at home in 47% of fixtures and average 1.76 points per match compared to 1.06 for visitors, with a seasonal xG of 1.45 versus 1.26 for opponents. In second halves the home side holds a clear advantage — 41% wins in the second half versus 18% for the away team and an average of 1.59 points in that half compared to 0.82 for opponents, which increases the likelihood of maintaining or extending a lead. Since the hosts led at the break in 29% of matches (5 games) and kept a clean sheet in the second half in 71% of cases, the 1/1 scenario (home leading at half-time and winning at full-time) is the strongest signal; hence the recommendation of 1/1 (24%).