Horsens vs AGF: match statistics

Horsens come into this match having won 3 of their last 5 games, while AGF have failed to win any of their matches during the same period, collecting just 1 point. The hosts have scored 13 goals in their last five games, compared with only 4 for the visitors, clearly indicating Horsens’ superior current attacking form. AGF lose 75% of their away matches and concede an average of 2 goals per game, without keeping a single clean sheet. Although the visitors create more high-quality chances, with an average xG of 1.63 compared with Horsens’ 1.11 at home, they convert them far less efficiently: their shot conversion rate stands at 7%, while the hosts’ is 14%. Horsens’ defense is not entirely reliable either, as they allow opponents an average xG of 1.78, but AGF’s disastrous trend and the hosts’ superior finishing make a home win the clear selection.

Both teams have recorded BTTS in 75% of their matches this season, well above the league average of 57%, while the figure has stood at 60% for each side across their last five games. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, with Horsens conceding an average of 1.75 goals per match and AGF 2.00. Horsens are in excellent attacking form, scoring 2.6 goals per game in their last five appearances, while AGF conceded as many as 2.2 goals during that period. The visitors have scored only 0.8 goals per game recently, but they create chances worth 1.55 xG, and Horsens allow opponents 1.55 xG, giving AGF a realistic path to scoring. BTTS - Yes therefore remains the strongest scenario, although AGF’s weaker finishing limits confidence in the pick.

Both teams have gone over the 1.5-goal line in 100% of their matches so far, and neither has kept a clean sheet. Horsens have averaged 2.6 goals scored across their last five matches, while AGF have conceded 2.2 goals per game during the same period, clearly supporting the hosts’ attacking output. Their offensive potential is also reflected in the xG data: Horsens average 2.04 xG at home, while AGF average 1.63 xG away; the two teams also record 19.5 and 14.75 shots per match, respectively. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Horsens’ last five matches and 60% of AGF’s, but the visitors’ lower attacking efficiency, with only 0.8 goals scored recently, limits confidence in higher goal lines. The strongest signal remains Over 1.5 goals, as the clean-sheet data and the 100% success rate on this line for both sides point to a high probability of at least two goals.

Horsens have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.6 goals, while AGF have failed to win any of their five games and conceded an average of 2.2 goals. The hosts held a lead at the break in 60% of their recent appearances, whereas AGF were behind at half-time in as many as 80% of those matches; additionally, the visitors did not score a single first-half goal during this period. Horsens should maintain their advantage after the interval, as they have averaged 1.8 goals in the second halves of their last five matches, compared with AGF’s 0.8. The scenario of the hosts leading at half-time and securing a full-time victory is therefore the strongest HT/FT selection, supported by both current form and the visitors’ clearly weaker performances in both halves.