Horsens vs Hillerød: match statistics

I back the home win: Horsens have 3 wins and 2 draws in their last five matches, averaging 2.2 points per game, while Hillerød have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss with an average of 1.6 points. The hosts’ defensive form is evident—Horsens conceded only 2 goals in their last 5 matches and concede 1.38 goals per home game with 38% clean sheets, whereas Hillerød concede 1.50 goals away and have only 14% clean sheets. Attacking metrics are balanced: both teams have xG of 1.3, with average shots 11.38 for the hosts vs 11.14 for the visitors, average shots on target 4.38 vs 4.36 and shot conversion 14% vs 13%. Hillerød hold a season advantage in goals scored (39 vs 34) and a higher league position (3rd vs 6th), and a lower share of matches without scoring away (14% vs 23%), increasing their likelihood to score and force a draw. In summary: Horsens’ better recent form, home defensive edge and higher home win rate (46% vs Hillerød’s 36% away) tip the balance to the hosts, although the visitors’ efficiency and tendency to draw keep the X as a realistic outcome.

I back BTTS - Yes because Hillerød has a seasonal both teams to score rate of 86% versus Horsens' 50% and the league average of 56%, which is a strong signal in favor of both sides. The visitors average 1.43 goals scored and concede 1.5, while the hosts average 1.36 scored and 0.93 conceded, so both teams statistically have goal-scoring potential. xG data confirms the balance: Horsens xG_for 1.41 vs Hillerød xG_against 1.49 and Hillerød xG_for 1.30 vs Horsens xG_against 1.29, and shot numbers (11.43 vs 11.14) and shots on target (4.86 vs 4.36) are also similar. Caution is required, however, because BTTS occurred in only 40% of the last 5 matches for both teams and Horsens conceded an average of 0.4 goals in those five fixtures, which lowers the confidence of the prediction.

xG and defensive data point to a goals match: Horsens has xG_for 1.41 while Hillerød concedes xG 1.49, yielding an expected 1.45 goals for the home side; Hillerød’s xG_for is 1.30 against Horsens’ defensive xG 1.29, yielding 1.30 expected away goals. Total expected goals = 2.75 (1.45+1.30), nearly identical to the league average 2.76, so at least two goals are likely. Season-to-date over 1.5 rates are 71% for Horsens and 86% for Hillerød (avg ≈79%), and a Poisson distribution with λ=2.75 gives P(over1.5) ≈76%, providing a clear edge on Over 1.5. Signals for the 2.5 line are mixed: season over 2.5 rates are 43% and 71% (avg ≈57%), but the last 5 matches show lower figures (20% and 40%), so Over 2.5 only has moderate chances. Additionally, both-teams-to-score rates are 50% (Horsens) and 86% (Hillerød), and recent form (Horsens 7 scored, 2 conceded in 5; Hillerød 5–4) supports expectation of at least two goals; therefore the best pick is Over 1.5.

Horsens led at the break in 43% of matches (6 times) and averages 0.86 goals by half-time versus Hillerød’s 0.57, giving them a tangible advantage in the first 45 minutes. Over the season the home side win 50% of matches with an average of 1.36 goals scored and 0.93 conceded, while Hillerød win 36% and concede 1.5 goals per game on average, so Horsens are the favorites to maintain a lead. It should be noted, however, that Hillerød are more active after the break — they score 0.86 goals in the second half on average versus 0.5 for Horsens, and the overall second-half goals average is 1.5 for the visitors vs. 1.0 for the hosts; the hosts’ xG is 1.41 compared to the visitors’ 1.30, suggesting a small quality edge in chances for Horsens. As a result the most likely HT/FT scenario is 1/1 (Horsens lead at the break and win) with an estimated probability of 32%, with notable alternatives such as X/1 (14%) and X/X (13%) due to Hillerød’s offensive activity after the break.