Imabari vs Montedio Yamagata: match statistics

Montedio Yamagata sit 5th, while Imabari are 20th, and the visitors have won 2 of their 3 league meetings so far. Imabari remain without a win, have lost all 3 matches this season, and in their last five recorded just 1 draw and 4 defeats, conceding as many as 12 goals in that period. The hosts’ defense is particularly problematic: at home, they allow opponents an average of 3 goals per match, despite their xG against standing at 1.63. Yamagata have conceded just 1 goal all season, while their average goals conceded away from home is 1, giving them a clear advantage in their out-of-possession organization. However, the hosts create plenty of chances at home, averaging 18 shots and generating an xG of 1.87, so an away win should not be considered a certainty.

The BTTS - No tip is supported by Montedio Yamagata’s very weak attacking record away from home: 0.0 goals per match and 100% of games without scoring. Imabari kept a clean sheet in 100% of their home matches, while both teams have a season BTTS rate of 0%. The hosts do create plenty of chances, averaging 2.10 xG, 18.5 shots and 6.5 shots on target per home game, so their goal is clearly more likely than an away goal. Imabari’s recent form has been defensively weaker, conceding an average of 2.4 goals across five matches, but Yamagata recorded only 20% BTTS in that period and averaged 1.0 goal scored. With the league-wide BTTS average standing at just 37%, the most realistic scenario remains one in which at least one team—primarily the visitors—fails to score.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as Imabari have conceded an average of 2.4 goals in their last five matches, while Montedio Yamagata have created chances worth 1.66 xG per game. The hosts also have strong attacking arguments: they average 18.5 shots and 6.5 shots on target, with a seasonal xG of 2.10. Imabari’s recent form is conducive to goals, as 80% of their previous five matches went over 2.5 goals, and the team conceded 12 goals during that period. Yamagata, however, have defended relatively solidly, conceding an average of 0.8 goals in their last five appearances, which reduces confidence in Over 2.5. The projected total of 2.70 goals indicates that at least two goals are clearly more likely than a very high-scoring game.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Montedio Yamagata win in the match, as the visitors were level at the break in 80% of their last five games and did not trail in any first half during that period. Imabari averaged just 0.6 goals before the break, while Yamagata conceded 0.0 goals per match in that period, clearly supporting a cautious, undecided opening. After the interval, the hosts conceded as many as 1.8 goals per game across their last five matches and did not win a single second half, whereas the visitors averaged 0.8 goals in the second period. The difference in current form is also reflected in the results: Imabari collected just 0.2 points per match across five appearances and lost 80% of them, while Yamagata has averaged 1.2 points and recorded a 40% win rate. The early-season home-and-away data are more favourable to Imabari, but they are based on a very small sample, so greater weight should be placed on the visitors’ current post-half-time advantage.