INCA-Aruba vs Firpo: match statistics

INCA-Aruba have lost all 4 matches played so far, scoring just 1 goal and conceding as many as 11, which clearly highlights major problems at both ends of the pitch. At home, the hosts average only 0.5 goals scored and 3.5 conceded, have yet to keep a clean sheet, and have failed to score in 50% of their matches. Firpo remain unbeaten this season with 2 wins and 1 draw, alongside a 7:1 goal difference, while away from home they allow opponents an average xG of just 1.00. The visitors are also creating higher-quality chances, recording an away xG of 1.65 compared with the hosts’ 1.36, while enjoying greater possession: 51% to 41%. The extent of INCA-Aruba’s defensive weaknesses should allow Firpo to take control of the match and secure the win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is INCA-Aruba’s very poor recent scoring record: the team has averaged just 0.25 goals per match, while both teams scored in only 25% of its recent fixtures. Firpo have conceded just 0.8 goals per match over this period, whereas INCA-Aruba have managed an average of only 1 goal across their last five appearances. The visitors have the potential to score themselves, as they average 1.6 goals, while the hosts concede as many as 2.75 goals per match. However, BTTS has occurred in only 40% of Firpo’s recent matches, and their more solid defense increases the likelihood of the hosts keeping a clean sheet. A scenario in which Firpo score and INCA-Aruba fail to find the net is therefore more likely than both sides scoring.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as this line has been surpassed in 100% of the teams’ previous matches. Firpo have averaged 1.6 goals scored in their last five fixtures, with a high average xG of 2.08, while INCA-Aruba have conceded as many as 2.75 goals per game during this period. The hosts are significantly weaker in attack, averaging just 0.25 goals scored in their last five appearances, but their xG of 1.47 indicates a realistic chance of contributing to the scoreline. At the same time, Firpo concede an average of 0.8 goals, so the projected total of 2.70 goals favors going over two goals, but does not provide an equally clear edge for Over 2.5 goals.

The strongest signal comes from current form: INCA-Aruba have lost all four of their last matches, scoring an average of just 0.25 goals and conceding 2.75, while Firpo average 1.6 goals scored. The hosts were trailing at half-time in 75% of those matches and failed to score before the break, whereas Firpo were leading after 45 minutes in 40% of their games, conceding just 0.2 goals per match during that phase. The visitors’ advantage is also evident after the break: Firpo score an average of 1.0 goal and concede 0.6, while INCA-Aruba score only 0.25 and allow their opponents 1.75 goals. Although INCA-Aruba’s previous home data is very strong, it is based on just two matches; therefore, the more reliable current form points to Firpo leading at the break and securing the final win in the HT/FT market: X/2.