Inverness CT vs Hamilton Academical: match statistics
Inverness CT vs Hamilton Academical: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Inverness CT played against Hamilton Academical in League One (Scotland). The game was played on May 2, 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Recent form
Inverness CT has 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.80 points per game. Hamilton Academical has 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses, with 1.80 points per game.
Scoring records
Inverness CT scores 1.66 goals per game and allows 0.66. Hamilton Academical scores 1.49 and allows 1.17. Games in this league average 2.62 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 46% of Inverness CT's games and 40% of Hamilton Academical's. The Over 2.5 rates are 37% and 57%, compared with league averages of 50% for BTTS and 49% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Inverness CT has the higher season xG average, 1.69 to 1.29 per game. Inverness CT takes 13.3 shots per game, while Hamilton Academical takes 9.8.
First-half and second-half trends
Inverness CT leads at halftime in 46% of its games and scores 0.91 goals per game after halftime. Hamilton Academical leads at halftime in 40% and scores 0.77 after halftime.
When the teams score
Inverness CT's most productive scoring window is minutes 61-75 (13 goals). For Hamilton Academical, it is minutes 46-60 (10 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
League One games average 2.62 goals. Both teams score in 50% of games, and 49% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 3 previous meetings were available. The record was 2 home wins, 0 draws and 1 away win. Those games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a home win. Inverness CT has 20 wins, 11 draws and only 4 losses this season, and at home they win 71% of matches, topping the home table. The hosts have scored 58 goals this season and average 2.12 goals per home game while conceding 0.65 on average, whereas Hamilton have 52 goals this season, score 1.59 on the road and concede 1.47. Inverness generates average xG of 1.96 with 6.88 shots on target and 16.18 total shots per match, while Hamilton have xG 1.33, 4.88 shots on target and 10.35 total shots, so although the visitors have higher shot conversion (15% vs 13%) they create far fewer goal-scoring opportunities. Additionally, the hosts have not recorded a single home match without scoring (0% such games) and keep 47% clean sheets, while Hamilton fail to score in 35% of away matches and have 35% clean sheets; therefore I assess the probability of a home win at 65%, draw 20% and away win 15%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The xG-based model gives a moderate signal for BTTS - Yes: attacking xG is 1.25 for Inverness and 1.33 for Hamilton, while xG against is 1.13 for the home side and 1.45 for the visitors; from these values expected goals come out around 1.35 (Inverness) and 1.23 (Hamilton), which via a Poisson model yields ~52% chance of BTTS. Additionally, in the last 5 matches BTTS occurred 60% of the time for the home team and 40% for the away team (average 50%), and both sides generate a high volume of shots: 9.22/10.35 overall and 4.39/4.88 on target with a conversion rate of 15%, supporting goals from both teams. The counterargument is Inverness’s high clean sheet rate of 44% and season-long BTTS only 39% (Inverness) and 41% (Hamilton), which historically reduces the frequency of both teams scoring. Weighing xG, recent form and shot metrics against seasonal clean sheets, I favor the "Yes" scenario at 56% versus 44% for "No".
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Average xG is 1.25 for Inverness and 1.33 for Hamilton, with xG against 1.13 (Inverness) and 1.45 (Hamilton). Averaging the home attack vs away defense and the away attack vs home defense yields expected goals of 1.35 for Inverness and 1.23 for Hamilton, total 2.58. Seasonal shares of matches over 1.5 are 67% for Inverness and 82% for Hamilton (average 74.5%), so the 1.5 line provides the strongest signal — I estimate Over 1.5 at ~75%. A Poisson model with λ=2.58 gives P(>=3)=47.6%, hence I rate Over 2.5 as a moderate edge at ~52%, taking into account that Hamilton has 71% of matches over 2.5. Over 3.5 remains unlikely: seasonal values 22%/47% (average 34.5%) and Poisson ~26% suggest an estimated ~30% for Over 3.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The hosts led at the break in 8 of their matches to date (44%) and won 56% of all games, suggesting the strongest signal is a lead at the break and a win for Inverness CT. In the first half the home side average 0.67 goals scored and 0.28 conceded, while the visitors record 0.76 scored and 0.59 conceded — so the hosts’ defense is more stable before the break. In the second half the visitors produce more goals (on average 1.71 vs 1.28 for the hosts) and also concede more (0.88 vs 0.56), but the hosts earn 31 points after the break and have 50% wins in second halves versus 35% for the visitors, which increases the chances of maintaining the lead. Additionally, 72% of the hosts’ first halves are clean sheets (vs 65% for the visitors), therefore my most likely HT/FT pick is 1/1 (36%), followed by X/1 (20%) and X/X (15%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Inverness CT | Hamilton Academical | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 44% | 47% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Inverness CT is 11% better for: goals scored per game.
1.66 goals / game - Inverness CT · 1.49 goals / game - Hamilton Academical
Inverness CT is 77% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.66 goals / game - Inverness CT · 1.17 goals / game - Hamilton Academical
Inverness CT scores in 91% of games (32 of 35 meczów), while Hamilton Academical keeps a clean sheet in 40% (14 of 35 meczów).
Hamilton Academical scores in 71% of games (25 of 35 meczów), while Inverness CT keeps a clean sheet in 51% (18 of 35 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Inverness CT
Over / Under - Hamilton Academical
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Inverness CT is 11% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.77 pts / game - Inverness CT · 1.6 pts / game - Hamilton Academical
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Inverness CT - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 46% of games and wins 57%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Hamilton Academical - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 40% of games and wins 46%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (13 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (10 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Inverness CT
Hamilton Academical
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (League One).
Teams vs league
| Inverness CT | Liga | Hamilton Academical | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.31 | 2.62 | • 2.66 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 46% | 50% | ▼ 40% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 37% | 49% | ▲ 57% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 51% | 27% | ▲ 40% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 71% | 74% | • 74% |
| Goal after half-time | • 83% | 83% | ▼ 80% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Inverness CT's perspective: 2 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss against Hamilton Academical. Games average 3.00 goals, and both teams scored in 33% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Inverness CT vs Hamilton Academical?
The League One match finished Inverness CT 2:1 Hamilton Academical. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Inverness CT and Hamilton Academical?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Inverness CT won 2, Hamilton Academical won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Inverness CT vs Hamilton Academical?
Inverness CT score 1.66 goals per game on average and Hamilton Academical 1.49. The League One average is 2.62 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 46% of Inverness CT's matches and 40% of Hamilton Academical's.
What form are Inverness CT and Hamilton Academical in?
Over the last 5 games Inverness CT have a 2-3-0 record (1.80 points per game) and Hamilton Academical 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Inverness CT vs Hamilton Academical?
The statistical background for Inverness CT vs Hamilton Academical — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.