İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük: match statistics

İstanbulspor are only 19th in the standings, but they have collected 7 points from their last five matches, recording 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, while Fatih Karagümrük have won 4 games during this period. However, the visitors’ significantly weaker away record is the key factor: they lost their only away match so far, failed to score and posted an average xG of just 0.88. At home, İstanbulspor average 2 goals with an xG of 1.83 and register 15 shots, 9 of them on target, whereas Karagümrük create only 6 attempts per away match. The hosts also concede 2 goals on average and have yet to keep a clean sheet, so a draw remains a realistic option, but their attacking advantage at home points towards a 1 result.

İstanbulspor has a very strong goalscoring profile across its last five matches: it averages 3.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while BTTS occurred in 80% of those games. Fatih Karagümrük also provides a strong case for goals at both ends, having averaged 1.4 goals scored in its last five matches, with a BTTS rate of 60%. The hosts have not kept a clean sheet in the current data and allow opponents an average of 1.98 xG, increasing the visitors’ chances despite their lower seasonal xG of 0.88. Meanwhile, İstanbulspor has created an average of 1.72 xG in its last five matches, while Karagümrük has conceded 1.44 xG over that period, making a home goal highly likely. The visitors’ seasonal BTTS rate of 0% and their failure to score are warning signs, but their short-term attacking form and İstanbulspor’s defensive weakness provide stronger support for the BTTS - Yes option.

İstanbulspor have been in highly attacking form: over their last 5 matches, they averaged 3.0 goals scored, while their average xG stood at 1.72. During the same period, Fatih Karagümrük averaged 1.4 goals scored, while İstanbulspor conceded 2.0 goals per match, giving the visitors a realistic chance to contribute to the final score. The hosts saw Over 2.5 goals land in 100% of their last five matches, while this outcome occurred in 60% of the visitors’ games. However, the strongest signal remains Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have a profile generating approximately 2.90 total goals, with the two-goal threshold clearly below the projected attacking output.

İstanbulspor score an average of 2.0 goals per home match and have won 100% of their matches so far, while Fatih Karagümrük have yet to score away from home, losing every match. The first-half indicators are particularly strong: the hosts led at the break in 50% of their matches and score an average of 1.0 goal before half-time, whereas the visitors were trailing at half-time in 100% of their away games, conceding an average of 1.0 goal. In their last five matches, İstanbulspor scored as many as 1.8 first-half goals, compared with just 0.4 for Fatih Karagümrük, reinforcing the scenario of the hosts gaining an advantage from the outset. The hosts also average 12 shots per match compared with the visitors’ 6, and have the higher attacking xG: 1.40 versus 0.88. The visitors’ recent five-match form has been good, so a turnaround cannot be ruled out; however, the most likely outcome remains İstanbulspor leading at half-time and holding on to win by full-time.