Ittihad Tanger vs CODM Meknès: match statistics

Ittihad Tanger holds a clear home-edge: at home they average 0.93 goals per game and an xG of 1.28, while CODM Meknès score only 0.57 goals away with an xG of 1.12. Hosts concede 0.93 goals at home on average and fail to score in 21% of home matches, whereas visitors concede 1.43 goals on the road and fail to score in 57% of away games, which significantly hampers their attacking prospects. In the last 5 matches Ittihad scored 4 goals and posted a record of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (1.4 points per game), while CODM scored 6 goals but only 1 win and 1.0 point per game, conceding 8 goals. The quality of chances also favors the hosts: at home they register 3.21 shots on target per game with a conversion rate of ~9%, while the visitors average 2.29 shots on target and ~6% conversion away. Considering the higher xG (1.28 vs 1.12), better home defense (0.93 vs 1.43) and the high share of away matches without a goal (57%), I back the home win, although Ittihad’s high home draw rate (57% of home games end level) increases the likelihood of a share of points.

Ittihad Tanger as the home side has 53% clean sheets this season and concedes on average 0.73 goals per match, while its seasonal BTTS rate is only 33%, indicating hosts often finish matches without conceding. CODM Meknès scores just 0.57 goals per match on the season and fails to score in 57% of games, with a seasonal BTTS of 43%, so the visitors regularly underperform in attack. Although CODM’s last 5 matches show BTTS at 60% with an average 1.2 goals scored, Ittihad’s last 5 have BTTS of only 20% and they average 0.8 goals, demonstrating that the hosts are most frequently keeping a clean sheet. Both teams have xG of 1.12, but shot conversion is 11% for Ittihad and 6% for CODM, and the league-wide BTTS rate is 52% — both teams sit below this average (33% and 43%), which also argues against BTTS. Considering the high home clean sheet rate (53%) and the frequent goalless outings from the visitors (57%), I assign a 70% probability to No (No Goal/clean sheet expected) and 30% to Yes (BTTS - Yes) — the strongest signals are the hosts’ defensive efficiency and the visitors’ inefficiency.

The combined xG for both teams is 2.24 (1.12 + 1.12), which in a simple Poisson model translates to roughly a 66% probability of at least 2 goals and about a 39% probability of at least 3 goals. Ittihad Tanger has a season goals average of 1.00 with xG 1.12 and keeps a clean sheet in 53% of home matches, while CODM Meknès actually scores 0.57 goals per game with xG 1.12 and concedes on average 1.43 goals; additionally, shot conversion 11% vs 6% favors the hosts. In the last 5 rounds the hosts scored 4 and conceded 5 (0.8 and 1.0 per game), and the visitors scored 6 and conceded 8 (1.2 and 1.6 per game), indicating the visitors have a higher recent offensive output but a weaker defense. Season percentages of matches over 2.5 goals are 27% for the hosts and 36% for the visitors versus a league average of 38%, so the 2.5 line is less convincing than 1.5; our model gives Over 1.5 ~66% vs Under 34%, which is the strongest signal. Therefore I recommend playing Over 1.5: combined xG 2.24 and clearly better conversion for Ittihad (11% vs 6%) boost the probability of at least 2 goals, although note the hosts’ 53% clean sheets and that Over 3.5 is unlikely (~19%).

Statistics show a clear home advantage: Ittihad Tanger wins 53% of matches versus only 7% wins for CODM Meknès and scores on average 1.0 goals per match compared to 0.57 for the visitors, which supports a home win after 90 minutes. At the same time, draws dominate at half-time — the hosts were level at the break in 67% of matches, and the average goals scored by half-time are only 0.33 for the hosts and 0.07 for the visitors, so HT is most often undecided (e.g. 0-0). In the second half the home advantage increases: Ittihad scored 5 goals in minutes 46–60 versus 3 goals for the visitors, and 73% of the hosts’ matches had at least one goal after the break, which raises the chance of a turnaround in favor of the hosts. Additionally, the hosts are more clinical — shot conversion rate 11% versus 6% for the visitors with similar xG (1.12 vs 1.12), so from comparable chances Ittihad more often converts opportunities into goals. For these reasons the most likely scenario is a Half-Time draw and a home win Full-Time (X/1), which in my assessment has a 42% probability while preserving a 53% overall probability of a home victory and only 7% for the away side.