Jarosław vs Sokół Kolbuszowa Dolna: match statistics

Jarosław has a clear attacking edge — he scored 18 goals in the last 5 matches (avg. 3.6 per match) versus Sokół’s 7 goals (1.4 per match). However, Sokół performs better defensively, conceding only 3 goals in those five fixtures (0.6 per match) compared to Jarosław’s 7 conceded (1.4 per match). Results show similar points efficiency: Jarosław is 4 wins and 1 draw (avg. 2.6 points per match), while Sokół is 4 wins and 1 loss (avg. 2.4 points per match), though the hosts remain unbeaten in this run. Goal difference over the last 5 matches is +11 for Jarosław and +4 for Sokół, indicating greater offensive potency from the hosts and their ability to finish chances. Therefore I assign the hosts a 60% probability of victory, 20% for a draw and 20% for an away win.

Analysis of the last 5 matches shows the home side has BTTS at 100% while the away side is only 40%, providing a clear edge for a Goal/Goal scenario. The home team scored 18 goals in the last 5 matches (3.6 per match) and conceded 7 (1.4 per match), whereas the visitors scored 7 goals (1.4 per match) and conceded 3 (0.6 per match), so the home side is highly effective offensively and the away side is also capable of finding the net. From an xG perspective the home team’s recent xG is 0.98 and the visitors’ is 1.01 per match, while opponents generated 1.43 xG against the visitors, suggesting the away team may still concede chances and allow a goal. Both teams are in good form: home 'wwdww' and away 'wwlww' (4 wins in 5 matches each), which increases the likelihood of an offensive contest. Considering the home 100% BTTS vs away 40% BTTS, the 18:7 goal ratio and xG 0.98 vs 1.01 with opponents’ xG against the visitors of 1.43, I assign 75% to BTTS - Yes and 25% to No as the most justified choice.

Jarosław in the last 5 matches averaged 3.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, totaling 5.0 goals per match in their games; Sokół in the last 5 matches averaged 1.4 scored and 0.6 conceded, totaling 2.0 goals. Jarosław has 100% of matches Over 2.5 and 100% BTTS in this period, while Sokół has 40% Over 2.5 and 40% BTTS, indicating the home side regularly features in high-scoring games. The xG model shows 0.98 for Jarosław and 1.01 for Sokół, but the home team significantly overperforms xG (3.6 goals vs xG 0.98), so their real finishing should be accounted for. Based on this I estimate about 2.29 goals for the home team and 1.20 for the away team, roughly 3.49 goals total; with that average level I estimate probability of Over 1.5 at ~86%, Over 2.5 at ~68% and Over 3.5 at ~46%. The best and strongest play is Over 1.5 (back Over, line 1.5) due to Jarosław’s 100% overs and the expected total ~3.49 goals, which provides a clear statistical edge.

Jarosław has averaged 3.6 goals per game and 2.25 goals by half-time in the last five matches (11 goals in 5 games), leading at the break in 75% of fixtures. Sokół over the same period averaged 1.4 goals per game and only 0.8 goals by half-time (4 goals in 5 games), keeping a clean sheet at the break in 100% of those matches, but overall conceding 0.6 goals per game. In full matches Jarosław also holds a clear advantage in goal metrics: average goals per game 5.0 versus Sokół’s 2.0, with the home side adding an average 1.5 goals after the break compared to 0.6 for the away team. Both teams are on good runs (4 wins in 5 matches, 80% win rate), however the hosts generate significantly more goals before half-time (2.25 vs 0.8), which increases the probability of a lead at the break and maintaining it until the end. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is 1/1 (Jarosław leading at half-time and winning the match).