JEF United vs Fagiano Okayama: match statistics

Fagiano Okayama sit 8th, while JEF United are bottom in 20th place, with the hosts having lost all 3 of their league matches so far and a 0:9 goal difference. JEF have scored just 2 goals and conceded 12 in their last five games, recording four defeats and only one draw. Particularly concerning is the hosts’ attacking efficiency at home: they have yet to score there, converting 0% of their shooting opportunities, while their average xG stands at just 0.92. Okayama create significantly more chances away from home, averaging 17 shots and an xG of 1.88, compared with JEF United’s 9 shots and 0.92 xG. The visitors are also in better form, having won 2 of their last five matches and averaged 1.4 points per game, while JEF have managed just 0.2 points, making an Okayama victory the most likely outcome.

A scenario in which one of the teams fails to score is slightly more likely, primarily due to JEF United’s poor finishing: across their last 5 matches, the team has averaged just 0.4 goals from 0.80 xG. The hosts have failed to score in 50% of their league fixtures, while their BTTS rate over the last five matches stands at only 40%, the same as Okayama’s. Fagiano should have a realistic chance of scoring, as JEF have recently conceded 2.4 goals per match and allowed opponents 2.13 xG, while the visitors have averaged 1.2 goals. At the same time, Okayama have conceded only 1.0 goal per match during this run, with average xG against of 1.09, which limits the prospects of the hosts breaking through. Although the league-average BTTS rate is a high 63%, JEF’s recent form profile more strongly supports BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team will fail to score.

JEF United have scored just 0.4 goals per game in their last 5 matches, with an xG of 0.80, limiting their contribution to a high-scoring game. Fagiano Okayama have shown greater attacking potential, averaging 1.2 goals and creating 1.63 xG over the same period, while JEF’s defense conceded as many as 2.4 goals per match. Despite the hosts’ defensive weakness, the visitors have not exceeded an average of 1.2 goals scored in their last five appearances, while their defense allowed an average of 1.0 goal. Both teams had at least 3 goals in 60% of their matches over their last five fixtures, but JEF’s lack of finishing efficiency reduces the likelihood of four goals. The 2.20-goal forecast primarily points toward Under 3.5, which also leaves room for a 2:1 or 3:0 result.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Fagiano Okayama win at full-time, as JEF United have scored just 0.2 goals before the break in their last five matches and went into half-time level in 40% of those games. However, the home side have been very weak after the break: they concede an average of 1.8 goals, lost the second half in 80% of their last five appearances, and failed to win any of them. During the same period, Okayama conceded just 0.2 goals per match after half-time, kept a clean sheet in 80% of second halves, and averaged 1.6 points after the break compared with JEF’s 0.2. The visitors also have significantly better current form, averaging 1.4 points per match and winning 40% of their last five league fixtures, whereas JEF averaged 0.2 points and lost 80% of their matches. Although JEF’s home data are based on a small sample and indicate a 100% clean-sheet rate, Okayama’s advantage in current form and second-half performance points to an away victory after an initially even first half.