Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan: match statistics

Ulsan sit 2nd, while Jeonbuk are fourth. The visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 10 goals in the process, compared with just 5 goals and only 1 win for the hosts. Jeonbuk have a clear edge in chance creation at home, averaging 16.18 shots and 1.88 xG per match with 60% possession, but this does not translate into a higher goals-per-game average than Ulsan, as both teams score 1.55 goals per match. Ulsan are more clinical, converting 12% of their shots into goals compared with Jeonbuk’s 10%, and have lost only 18% of their away matches while recording a 55% win rate. The visitors’ defense concedes an average of 1.09 goals away from home, fewer than Jeonbuk’s 1.18 at home, although their xG against stands at a high 1.55, giving the hosts a realistic chance of scoring. Ulsan’s stronger recent record, averaging 1.8 points across their last five matches compared with Jeonbuk’s 1.0, slightly tips the prediction in favor of the visitors.

BTTS - Yes is more likely, as Jeonbuk has recorded this outcome in 75% of their matches this season, compared with 64% for Ulsan—well above the league average of 53%. Both teams rarely keep a clean sheet: Jeonbuk have done so in only 17% of matches and Ulsan in 18%, while conceding an average of 1.75 and 1.09 goals respectively. Their attacking potential is supported by high xG figures of 1.83 for the hosts and 1.62 for the visitors, as well as more than 5 shots on target per game for both sides. Recent form is not entirely conclusive, as Jeonbuk had BTTS in 40% of their last five matches and scored an average of 1.0 goal, while Ulsan averaged 2.0 goals per game during this period, increasing the likelihood of the visitors scoring. The most realistic scenario, therefore, appears to be a match in which both teams score at least once, although Jeonbuk’s weaker recent finishing limits confidence in the pick.

The strongest signal points to at least two goals: Jeonbuk went over the 1.5-goal line in 75% of matches, while Ulsan did so in all games played so far. Both teams regularly create chances, as reflected by average xG figures of 1.83 for the hosts and 1.62 for the visitors, as well as more than 5 shots on target per match for both sides. Jeonbuk concede an average of 1.75 goals, while Ulsan have scored 10 goals in their last five matches, averaging 2.0 per game. The 2.5-goal line also has merit, but the disparity between the hosts' 75% over rate and the visitors' 45% makes Over 1.5 clearly the safer option.

A draw at half-time is the most logical starting point, as Jeonbuk were level after 45 minutes in 33% of their matches, compared with 36% for Ulsan; over their last five games, both teams reached this state in 40% of cases. Ulsan, however, have a clear advantage over the full match: they average 1.55 goals scored, concede just 1.09, and win 55% of their matches, while Jeonbuk concede 1.75 goals per game and lose as many as 50% of their fixtures. Current form also favors the visitors, who have scored 2.0 goals per game and won 60% of their last five matches, compared with Jeonbuk’s 1.0 goals and 20% win rate. After half-time, Ulsan average 1.0 goals scored while allowing opponents just 0.45, and they have avoided defeat in 91% of matches during this period, further supporting the scenario of a half-time draw followed by an Ulsan win at full-time.