Juárez vs Tijuana: match statistics

Tijuana have a slight edge: they have won 4 of their 9 matches this season, compared with Juárez’s 1 win from 10. The hosts have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, conceding 10 goals in the process, giving the visitors a chance to end their winless away run. Tijuana average 1.33 goals per away match, compared with Juárez’s 0.8 at home, but their defense is also prone to errors, conceding an average of 2.33 goals per game against their opponents’ 2.0. Chance quality does not give the visitors a clear advantage: their away xG is 1.07, while the hosts’ home xG stands at 1.19. Tijuana’s two draws in their three away matches so far make a share of the points a very real possibility, although Juárez’s poor results tilt the forecast slightly in the visitors’ favor.

BTTS occurred in 50% of Juárez matches and 67% of Tijuana’s, giving a moderate lean towards both teams scoring. Juárez average 1.67 goals, while Tijuana concede 2.33, so the hosts’ chances of finding the net look solid. The visitors score an average of 1.33 goals, and in their last five matches they scored 1.6 goals per game, while Juárez conceded 2.0. Over the same period, both defenses conceded heavily — 2.0 and 2.2 goals per match, respectively — further supporting a goals-at-both-ends scenario. However, caution is warranted: Tijuana failed to score in 33% of their matches, while Juárez kept a clean sheet in 33%. For BTTS - No to land, at least one team must fail to score; this does not necessarily mean a 0-0 draw.

Juárez average 1.67 goals at home, while Tijuana concede 2.33 goals away, giving the hosts a clear chance to find the net. Tijuana average 1.33 goals scored away, and have scored 1.6 goals per game across their last five matches, while Juárez have conceded 2.0 goals per game over that span. At least three goals were scored in 60% of the teams’ last five matches, although their season attacking xG—1.42 for Juárez and 1.07 for Tijuana—suggests caution with higher lines. With a forecast of 3.05 goals, Over 1.5 goals is the safest pick: it offers more margin than Over 2.5 and has landed in 67% of each team’s matches.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Juárez were level at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches and failed to score before half-time in any of them. Juárez’s home record points to an advantage later in the match, averaging 2.0 points per game at home, while Tijuana average just 0.67 away. Juárez score an average of 1.0 goals after the break and won 67% of their second halves at home; Tijuana concede an average of 1.33 goals in second halves and have not won any away second half. However, the X/1 pick remains risky, as Juárez have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, so the home advantage is more evident in the second-half forecast than in the first.