Juventude vs Londrina: match statistics

The favorite to win appears to be Juventude. At home Juventude averages 1.38 xG and 1.0 goals scored per match while not conceding (0.0 goals conceded on average and 100% clean sheets), indicating a stable defensive setup at their stadium. The hosts create more chances — 11.5 shots and 5.5 on target per game with 52% possession — whereas Londrina away averages only 8.5 shots and 2.0 on target with 47% possession. Londrina is, however, significantly more efficient in finishing (24% conversion vs. 9% for Juventude) and scores on average 2.0 goals away, but their away xG is only 0.83 with an xG against of 2.13, which suggests the visitors’ goals stem more from high finishing efficiency than from the quality of chances. Considering Juventude’s xG advantage (1.38–0.75), superiority in chance creation and an average of 1.4 points per game in the last 5 matches versus Londrina’s 1.0, I give higher probability to the home side’s victory.

Seasonal statistics strongly support BTTS - Londrina has 100% of matches with both teams scoring, Juventude 67%, and the league average is 53%. In the last 5 fixtures, however, Juventude registered only 20% BTTS versus 80% for Londrina, so recent form significantly favors the visitors. Londrina scores an average of 2.0 goals per match and has recorded no clean sheets (0%), while Juventude concedes an average of 1.33 goals per match — a strong signal that the visitors are likely to score. Although xG shows 1.39 for Juventude and 0.83 for Londrina, the visitors convert their chances far better (conversion rate 24% vs 8%), which explains their higher actual goals per game. Considering Londrina’s 100% BTTS, Juventude’s 67% and the form distribution over the last 5 matches, I favor the "both teams to score" scenario (BTTS - Yes).

The model combines both teams' xG and indicates 1.76 expected goals for Juventude and 1.17 for Londrina, totaling 2.93 goals. This season Juventude have 67% of matches over 1.5 and 2.5 goals, while Londrina have 100% of such games, demonstrating both sides’ propensity for contests with at least 2–3 goals. Londrina have scored 7 goals this season with an xG_for of 0.83 and a very high shot conversion rate of 24%, whereas Juventude average 13 shots and 1.39 xG, which increases the probability of exceeding the 2.5 threshold (expected 2.93). The percentage of matches over 3.5 is 33% for Juventude and 50% for Londrina, so the 3.5 line is less certain (I estimate over ~39%). On this basis I recommend backing Over 2.5 as the strongest value signal (estimated probability of over ~68%), also supported by a high BTTS: 67% and 100%.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and an away win at full-time (X/2). In the first half Juventude scores on average 0.67 goals and concedes 0.33, and the home side have 67% of matches with a lead at the break as a draw versus 50% draws for Londrina, making a draw at the 45-minute mark the most probable. In the second half Londrina have the advantage: the visitors score on average 2.0 goals after the break, while Juventude only score 0.33 and concede 1.0 in second halves, so Londrina are most likely to produce the turnaround. Additionally Londrina average 1.5 points per match versus 0.67 for Juventude and have 50% wins compared to 0% for the hosts, and despite Juventude’s higher xG (1.39 vs 0.83) and greater number of shots (13.0 vs 8.5), Juventude’s conversion rate is 8% versus 24% for Londrina, which increases the likelihood that the visitors will decide the outcome after the break.