Juventus vs Bologna: match statistics

The favorite is Juventus – the hosts average 2.00 goals scored per home match and concede only 0.81, while Bologna on the road scores 1.63 and concedes 1.19. Juve’s advantage is also evident in chance quality: home xG is 2.16 versus the visitors’ 1.25 xG, and Juve averages 19.13 shots and 6.88 on target per game compared to Bologna’s 11.44 and 4.00, despite Bologna having a higher shooting accuracy (14% vs 10%). Form further favors Juve – in the last 5 matches they have a 4-1-0 record and average 2.6 points while conceding only 1 goal, whereas Bologna over the same period have 2 wins and 3 losses, conceding 10 goals and averaging 1.2 points. Juventus also have 44% clean sheets at home and only 6% home defeats, while Bologna have 25% clean sheets away; although Bologna are less likely to be held scoreless (13% of matches without a goal vs 19% for Juve), the goals tally (55 for Juve vs 42 for Bologna) and the xG advantage support a home victory.

Bologna has BTTS at 63% this season, while Juventus only 31%, and the league average BTTS is 46%, indicating mixed signals. In the last 5 matches Juventus scored 9 and conceded only 1 (avg 1.8 scored and 0.2 conceded); form 'wwdww' points to a strong defense. Bologna in their last 5 scored 5 and conceded 10 (1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded); form 'lwlwl'. Quality metrics also favor Juventus: Juventus xG_for is 1.61 versus xG_against for Bologna 1.28, while Bologna xG_for is 1.25 against Juventus xG_against 1.02, suggesting Juventus creates better chances and limits the opponent more effectively. Bologna compensates with a conversion rate of 14% versus Juventus 7% and has 56% of matches over 2.5 and 50% over2.5+BTTS, but Juventus’ season clean sheet rate of 38% versus Bologna 25% and only 1 goal conceded in the last 5 significantly reduce the probability of Goal/Goal. Based on this, the more likely scenario is No Goal — I estimate No BTTS at 60% and BTTS - Yes at 40%.

The average expected goals calculated as the mean of attack and defense are Juventus xG 1.45 (1.61 attack vs 1.28 opponent defense) and Bologna xG 1.14 (1.25 vs 1.02), giving a total of 2.59 expected goals. With lambda = 2.59 the Poisson distribution yields P(Over 1.5) ≈73%, P(Over 2.5) ≈48% and P(Over 3.5) ≈26%, so the strongest signal is the 1.5 line. Seasonal data confirm this trend: Juventus has 69% of matches over 1.5 goals, Bologna 75%, and Bologna also records 56% of matches over 2.5 versus Juventus’s 38%. In the last 5 matches Juventus scored 9 and conceded 1 (2.0 goals per match on average), while Bologna’s last 5 matches produced 15 goals in total (5 scored and 10 conceded, 3.0 goals per match on average), which increases the risk of at least two goals in this meeting. On this basis I recommend an Over on the 1.5 line as the most probable and strongest option.

Juventus shows better form: in the last 5 matches they have 4 wins and 1 draw (80%) and led at the break in 3 of 5 games (60%), while Bologna have won only 2 of 5 (40%). The home side generate an average xG of 1.61 at home versus Bologna’s 1.25 xG away and average 15.38 shots compared to the visitors’ 11.44, indicating an advantage in chance creation. In the last 5 matches Juventus scored on average 0.8 goals by half-time and did not concede before the break (0.0 on average), whereas Bologna averaged 0.6 scored and 0.8 conceded by half-time in their five most recent games. Seasonally, however, Bologna score more away (1.63 goals per game) and led at the break in 38% of matches versus Juventus’s 13% at home, and their fixtures feature a 63% rate of both teams scoring, which raises the risk of draws/visitor reactions. Summing xG advantage, shot volume and Juventus’s lack of conceded goals before half-time in the last 5 matches, the strongest signal points to a Half-Time/Full-Time scenario of Juventus leading at the break and winning the match (1/1).