Kairouan vs Ben Guerdane: match statistics

I back the away win (Ben Guerdane). The visitors display clearly superior form: over the last 5 matches they have averaged 1.4 points (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), while Kairouan have only 0.6 points per match in that period (1 win and 4 losses) and have scored 2 goals versus 4 for the visitors. The defensive differential is key — Kairouan have conceded 40 goals this season (1.69 per home match) compared to 20 conceded by Ben Guerdane (1.23 per away match), with average xG against of 1.48 for the home side versus 1.34 for the visitors (xG for: 1.01 vs 0.92). Ben Guerdane register more shots on target on the road (3.08 vs 2.54), have 31% of matches with a clean sheet compared to 23% for Kairouan, although the home side’s shot conversion is higher (11% vs 8%). Given the more stable defense, better shots-on-target metrics and markedly stronger recent form, I assign the visitors a 50% chance to win, 30% for a draw and 20% for a home win.

Statistical analysis favors "no" (BTTS - No). Kairouan at home has only 8% of matches with both teams scoring and keeps a clean sheet in 69% of games, conceding only 0.31 goals per match on average. Ben Guerdane away posts 38% BTTS and scores 0.62 goals on average, but their xG_for is 0.92, which is lower than the xG opponents typically create against Kairouan (xG_against_home 1.04), indicating the visitors generate fewer quality chances. Additionally, Kairouan has a higher xG_for of 1.48 and averages 5.71 shots on target per match versus 3.08 for the visitors, increasing the likelihood that the hosts will be the primary scorers. Although in the last 5 matches both teams show 20% BTTS and Ben Guerdane scored 4 goals compared to Kairouan's 2, the seasonal contrast of 8% vs 38% BTTS and the high percentage of home clean sheets is a stronger signal, so I assign 78% to "no" and 22% to "yes".

The xG-based model projects 1.41 goals for Kairouan and 0.98 for Ben Guerdane (total 2.39), which under a Poisson distribution translates to roughly a 69% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5). Kairouan at home generates xG 1.48 and averages 5.71 shots on target, while Ben Guerdane away concedes xG of 1.34 and concedes on average 1.23 goals — this favors the home side in scoring. Conversely, Kairouan has a very strong home defense: seasonal average goals conceded is only 0.31 and 69% of matches are clean sheets; at home they have recorded 0% of matches over 2.5 goals, which lowers the chance of Over 2.5 (our estimate ~43%). Season shares also show Kairouan has 31% of matches over 1.5 goals and Ben Guerdane 54%, so the edge applies to Over 1.5 versus higher lines (Over 3.5 ~22%). As a result, the strongest signal from the data is a play on the Over 1.5 line.

At half-time the most likely outcome is a draw: the home side were level at the break in 62% of matches, with first-half goal averages of 0.38 for Kairouan and 0.15 for Ben Guerdane, and the hosts kept a clean sheet at half-time in 92% of games. After 90 minutes a draw is also a strong scenario — the hosts finish level in 38% of cases and keep a clean sheet in 69% of matches, while the league features 91% of matches with a clean sheet, which supports an X/X HT/FT. Although Kairouan have higher xG (1.48 vs 0.92) and more shots on target (5.71 vs 3.08), increasing their chance of a goal in the second half, the hosts’ poorer form over the last five matches (only 20% wins) limits conversion of that advantage, while the visitors concede late goals frequently (8 goals conceded in minutes 76–90). As a result, the strongest signal from the data is a draw at the break and a draw at full-time (X/X).