Kazincbarcika vs Kecskeméti TE: match statistics

Kecskeméti TE head into the match with the stronger run of form: they have collected 13 points from their last five matches, recording 4 wins and a draw, while Kazincbarcika have earned 11 points. Away from home, the visitors create chances worth an average of 1.71 xG, significantly higher than the hosts’ 1.21 xG at home. They also average 13.67 shots and 5.33 shots on target per match, compared with their opponents’ 10 and 4, respectively. Kecskeméti TE’s defense also restricts opponents to chances worth just 0.82 xG, whereas Kazincbarcika allow 1.32 xG. However, the hosts are highly effective on home soil, having won both of their matches there and scoring an average of 2.5 goals, making a home goal likely. Nevertheless, the visitors hold a slight edge in the win market due to their superior recent form, greater chance creation and just 3 goals conceded in their last five matches.

Both teams record BTTS at 67%, above the league average of 57%, while over their last five matches this figure stood at 80% for Kazincbarcika and 60% for Kecskeméti. The hosts average 2.0 goals per match, while the visitors have averaged 2.2 across their last five appearances, with neither side having finished a seasonal match without scoring. Kecskeméti’s attack generates an average of 1.71 xG, compared with 1.60 xG for Kazincbarcika, confirming both teams’ genuine scoring potential. The hosts’ recent defensive record also supports the pick, as they conceded an average of 1.0 goal and allowed opponents 1.20 xG, although the visitors are more solid defensively, conceding just 0.6 goals per match. The risk to BTTS - Yes is that both teams have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their matches, but the goal data advantage and high BTTS rates point towards a scenario with goals at both ends.

Kazincbarcika score an average of 2.0 goals per match, while Kecskeméti TE also average 2.0, with neither team yet having finished a game without scoring. The 1.5 line has been covered in 100% of the hosts’ matches and 67% of the visitors’ appearances, providing a very strong foundation for at least two goals. The attacking potential is supported by xG: the hosts create an average of 1.60 expected goals, while the visitors record 1.71, although both defenses have relatively low xG conceded figures of 0.49 and 0.82, respectively. In their last five matches, the teams scored 2.0 and 2.2 goals per game, respectively, while Over 2.5 landed in 60% of those matches for both sides. The safest edge is therefore Over 1.5, as the projected total of 2.63 goals leaves a clear margin above this line.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Kecskeméti TE win at full-time, as the visitors were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches, compared with 60% for Kazincbarcika. Both teams tend to be relatively cautious in the first half: the hosts have averaged 1.0 goals scored during the opening 45 minutes across their last five matches, while the visitors have averaged 0.6, with Kecskeméti keeping a clean sheet at half-time in 60% of those appearances. After the break, the form advantage shifts to the visitors, who have averaged 1.6 goals scored and just 0.2 conceded in their last five matches, winning the second half in 80% of cases. Kazincbarcika are also dangerous after half-time, but their averages of 1.0 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, along with a 40% second-half win rate, are inferior to their opponents’ figures.