Kecskeméti TE vs Szentlőrinc SE: match statistics

Kecskeméti TE holds a clear home advantage — 64% home win rate versus Szentlőrinc’s mere 9% away win rate. The hosts average 1.82 goals per home match while the visitors score only 0.91 on the road; hosts’ home xG is 1.73 compared to Szentlőrinc’s 1.26, indicating superiority in chance quality. Kecskeméti limits defensive risk — conceding 0.9 xG and on average 0.91 goals per home game, whereas Szentlőrinc concedes 1.27 goals away and faces 1.65 xG against. In the last five matches the hosts have 2 wins and average 1.2 points per game, while the visitors have no wins in their last 5 and average just 0.6 points per game; additionally the hosts register more shots on target (5.36 vs 3.91) and maintain possession more often (55% possession vs 47%), therefore I predict a home win.

Seasonal stats and current form favor BTTS: Kecskeméti has a seasonal BTTS rate of 75%, Szentlőrinc 55% (average 65%), and in the last 5 matches values are 60% and 80% (average 70%), which is a strong short-term signal for “both teams to score”. From a goals and xG perspective, the home side averages 1.5 goals per match with xG 1.46 and concedes 1.58 (xG against 1.45), while the visitors seasonally average 0.91 goals with xG 1.26 and concede 1.27 (xG against 1.65), suggesting both sides create chances and the visitors’ defense is particularly exposed. In the last 5 matches the home team scored 5 and conceded 11 (avg 1.0 and 2.2 per match), and the visitors 6 and 9 (avg 1.2 and 1.8), so both teams have been conceding frequently recently. Additionally, low clean sheet percentages (17% for the home side, 27% for the visitors) and the home advantage in shots (12.0 vs 10.0) and shots on target (4.17 vs 3.91) increase the likelihood of both teams finding the net; on this basis I assess BTTS - Yes at 70% and No at 30%.

Kecskeméti averages 1.50 goals per match (xG 1.46, shot conversion 13%), Szentlőrinc 0.91 goals (xG 1.26, conversion 9%), and combined xG is 2.72 (1.46 + 1.26), above the league average of 2.53 and favoring games with at least two goals. Seasonal percentages of matches over 1.5 goals are 83% for the home side and 73% for the away side (average 78%), while both-teams-to-score rate is 75% vs 55%, which further increases the chance of Over 1.5. The 2.5 line gives mixed signals: season-to-date Over 2.5 is 42% for Kecskeméti and 55% for Szentlőrinc (avg ~49%), but in the last 5 matches both teams show 60% of games above 2.5, hence a moderate lean towards Over (~52%). Over 3.5 looks weaker — season rates 33% (home) vs 9% (away) yield a low combined probability (~25%), and total xG 2.72 does not clearly support >3.5, therefore I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (estimate ~85%).

The strongest signal from the data points to a Half-Time/Full-Time draw/draw (X/X): the home side are level at the break in 42% of matches and their games finish level as much as 58% of the time. Offensively the hosts have a slight edge in xG (1.46 versus the visitors’ 1.26), take more shots (12 vs 10) and are more clinical (13% vs 9%), which increases the likelihood of goals from both teams — 75% of the hosts’ matches see both sides score. By half-time the hosts average 0.83 goals scored and 0.42 conceded, and they lead at the break in 50% of games, so a draw or a narrow home lead at the break is realistic. However, in second halves the hosts concede an average of 1.17 goals, which raises the probability of comebacks and final draws, and the visitors’ poor run (0% wins in their last five matches) further reduces the likelihood of a complete defeat for the hosts.