Kilmarnock vs Dundee: match statistics

Kilmarnock holds a clear advantage in chance creation and efficiency at home: they average 13.31 shots per game, including 4.06 on target, and score 1.25 goals per match, whereas Dundee away record 9.31 shots, 2.63 on target and only 0.50 goals per game. The gap is confirmed by xG — Kilmarnock posts 1.47 xG at home versus 1.01 xG for Dundee on the road; additionally Dundee concedes 1.80 xG away while Kilmarnock concedes 1.43 at home, indicating greater defensive vulnerability for Dundee. Over the last five matches the hosts are 2-1-2 (1.4 points per game) and the visitors 1-2-2 (1.0 ppg), which supports Kilmarnock’s superior form. Efficiency metrics further emphasize the edge: Kilmarnock win 31% of home games and fail to score in only 31% of home matches, while Dundee win 13% of away games and are shut out in 69% of away fixtures. On this basis I tip a home win, with a moderate chance of a draw and a low probability of an away victory.

A strong signal for BTTS - Yes is that Kilmarnock has a season-long BTTS rate of 69%, while the league average registers 51% of matches with both teams scoring. Additionally, the hosts have conceded 63 goals this season and kept a clean sheet in only 13% of matches, with an xG against of 1.77, indicating frequent allowance of scoring chances to opponents. Dundee have weaker seasonal offensive metrics (0.5 goals per match and a season BTTS of 25%), but in their last 5 fixtures the visitors scored 8 goals (1.6 per match) and show an 80% BTTS rate in those five games, increasing the risk they will score here as well. Both sides have conceded 9 goals in their last 5 matches (1.8 per match on average), and match xG figures are 1.24 for Kilmarnock and 1.01 for Dundee, indicating sufficient chances at both ends of the pitch. Considering the dominant home signal (69% BTTS, low clean sheet percentage) and Dundee’s recent run (80% BTTS in 5 games), I tip BTTS 'yes' with a 65% probability versus 35% for 'no'.

I calculated expected goals by averaging one team’s attack and the other’s defense: for Kilmarnock (xG attack 1.24 and xG conceded by Dundee 1.80) this yields 1.52 goals, for Dundee (xG attack 1.01 and xG conceded by Kilmarnock 1.77) yields 1.39, total 2.91. With a combined expectation of 2.91 the Poisson model gives probabilities of Over 1.5 ≈79%, Over 2.5 ≈56% and Over 3.5 ≈33%. Season numbers confirm a strong Over 1.5 signal: Kilmarnock have 88% of matches with more than 1.5 goals, Dundee 50%, and the league goals average is 2.69 per game. Additionally Kilmarnock create more chances (10.69 shots and 3.44 on target per game with a 14% conversion), while Dundee have a lower conversion of 5% and a season away average of 0.5 goals, which reduces the likelihood of very high-scoring outcomes (Over 3.5 ~33%). Therefore I recommend playing the Over at the 1.5 line — this is the strongest signal: 79% probability with expected 2.91 goals.

Kilmarnock have a clear edge in attack: they score on average 1.5 goals per game versus 0.5 for Dundee, and 0.69 before half-time versus 0.38, which favors the home side taking a lead at the break. The quality of chances also favors Kilmarnock — xG 1.24 versus 1.01, 3.44 shots on target per game vs 2.63 and a conversion rate of 14% compared to 5% for the visitors — this increases the likelihood they will create and convert a chance before half-time. In the last five matches the hosts led at the break in 40% of games while Dundee did so in only 20%, and Kilmarnock add on average 0.81 second-half goals versus 0.13 for Dundee, so maintaining or extending the lead is realistic. Additionally, Kilmarnock win 38% of home matches compared with just 13% away wins for Dundee, and season-long data show Kilmarnock games finish with both teams scoring in 69% of cases (vs 25% for Dundee), which suggests the opponent can score but rarely stages a turnaround. Therefore the best HT/FT signal is 1/1 (Kilmarnock leading at half-time and winning at full-time), to which I assign the highest probability in the distribution below.