Kongsvinger vs Bryne: match statistics

Bryne is the favorite in this match — they sit 1st in the table versus Kongsvinger’s 5th place, and in the last 5 matches Bryne has 3 wins and 2 losses compared to the home side’s 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses. In attack Bryne scored 10 goals in the last 5 matches (2.0 per game), while Kongsvinger scored 8 goals (1.6 per game), giving the visitors an edge in offensive efficiency. Both teams, however, concede significantly — Bryne conceded 9 goals (1.8 per game) and Kongsvinger 7 goals (1.4 per game), so I expect an open game with scoring opportunities. Additionally Bryne averages 1.8 points per game over the last 5 matches versus Kongsvinger’s 1.4 points per game, which confirms greater consistency of results, therefore I give the advantage to the visitors.

Based on the last 5 matches, Kongsvinger averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Bryne averages 2.0 scored and 1.8 conceded, yielding respective match totals of 3.0 and 3.8 goals. xG corroborates an offensive profile for both sides: xG for Kongsvinger is 1.46 versus 1.42 for Bryne, and xG against is 1.31 versus 1.79, suggesting greater defensive vulnerability for Bryne. BTTS statistics are divergent — Kongsvinger recorded BTTS in 20% of their last 5 games, Bryne in 60% — which reduces confidence but indicates at least one side regularly concedes. Additionally, the teams have scored 8 and 10 goals and conceded 7 and 9 respectively in their last 5 matches, increasing the likelihood of a Goal/Goal outcome. Considering higher averages for goals scored and conceded along with the xG profiles, I assign a 60% probability to BTTS - Yes and 40% to BTTS - No; the 'yes' selection is driven by the offensive signal advantage and the higher volume of chances created by both teams.

Analysis of the last 5 matches shows Kongsvinger scores on average 1.6 and concedes 1.4, while Bryne scores 2.0 and concedes 1.8, giving a simple combined scoring total of 3.6 goals per game. xG in the last 5 matches was 1.46 for Kongsvinger and 1.42 for Bryne, with xG against at 1.31 and 1.79 respectively; goal-based estimates (1.7 and 1.7) and xG-based estimates (1.625 and 1.365) produce expected goals of 1.66 for the home side and 1.53 for the away side, total 3.19. With λ≈3.19 the Poisson model estimates probability of Over 1.5 ≈82.7% (83%), Over 2.5 ≈61.8% (62%) and Over 3.5 ≈39.5% (39%), and the corresponding under probabilities are 17%, 38% and 61%. Additionally, Bryne had 80% of matches above 2.5 in the last 5, while Kongsvinger had 40%, which strengthens the signal for Over 2.5, with a low home BTTS (20%) suggesting most goals may come from Bryne. Therefore I recommend the strongest play as Over on the 1.5 line (probability ~83%).

Both teams were level at half-time in 50% of their last 5 meetings (home 50%, away 50%), with average first-half goals of 0.5 for Kongsvinger and 1.0 for Bryne, suggesting a half-time draw is most likely. Over the full match Bryne shows superior numbers: on average 2.0 goals per game versus Kongsvinger’s 1.6 and 60% wins in the last 5 fixtures compared to the hosts’ 40%, so the visitors hold the advantage for the final result. Additionally, Bryne scores on average 1.5 goals in second halves over the last 5 matches, which increases the probability of a turnaround after a half-time draw. The hosts, however, recorded 100% clean second halves in those five games, which may limit scoring momentum after the break, but the goal differential and the higher win rate for the visitors point toward a Half-Time draw and Full-Time Bryne victory (X/2).