Kongsvinger vs Stabæk: match statistics

Kongsvinger are favorites thanks to their very strong home performances: they have won 79% of their home matches, while Stabæk have won 43% of their away fixtures. The hosts average 3.93 goals and 7.43 shots on target per game at home, compared with 1.79 goals and 5.07 shots on target per away game for the visitors. Their advantage in chance creation is reflected in an xG of 2.10, although Stabæk’s away xG of 1.79 suggests the visitors can also pose a threat. Caution is warranted, however: Kongsvinger have conceded 13 goals in their last 5 matches and lost 3 of them, while Stabæk have recorded 3 wins and conceded just 5 goals over the same period. Despite the visitors’ better recent form, the hosts’ clear attacking edge at home points to a Kongsvinger win.

Kongsvinger average 2.93 goals at home and have failed to score in none of the matches in this sample, making a home goal highly likely. Stabæk average 1.79 goals away, while Kongsvinger have conceded as many as 2.6 goals per match across their last 5 games, increasing the likelihood of an away response. The case for BTTS - Yes is also supported by the xG of both attacks: 2.15 for the hosts and 1.79 for the visitors, with both teams scoring in 80% of Kongsvinger's last five matches. Caution is warranted, however, given Stabæk's lower season rate of 43% for such matches and the fact that the visitors have failed to score in 21% of their games. Even so, the combination of the hosts' potent attack and their recent defensive struggles makes the scenario in which both teams score the more likely outcome.

Kongsvinger average 2.93 goals per match and generate an xG of 2.15, while Stabæk concede an average of 1.21 goals, giving the hosts a solid platform to find the net. The visitors can also get on the scoresheet: they average 1.79 goals, and Kongsvinger have conceded as many as 2.6 goals per match across their last five games. Over 1.5 goals has landed in all of the hosts’ matches and 79% of the visitors’ matches, making it considerably better supported by the data than Over 3.5 goals, which has landed in 64% and 43% of their matches, respectively. With a projected total of 3.8 goals, Over 1.5 goals is the strongest pick, though this does not guarantee the outcome.

Kongsvinger led at the break in 50% of their matches so far, compared with 29% for Stabæk, making a home lead at half-time the most likely single scenario. The case for Kongsvinger maintaining that advantage is supported by their 79% win rate versus Stabæk’s 43%, as well as averages of 2.93 goals scored per match compared with 1.79. The hosts also have a higher average attacking xG, 2.15 versus 1.79, and score an average of 1.50 goals after the break, while the visitors concede 0.71 in that period. However, recent form weakens the 1/1 case: Kongsvinger led at the break in only one of their last five matches, while Stabæk kept a clean sheet in the first half in four of their last five. A half-time draw followed by a home win therefore also has a significant chance, but Kongsvinger’s season-long advantage makes 1/1 the strongest single pick.