Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor: match statistics

I back an away win (Trabzonspor) due to their clear season-long superiority: 19 wins and 57 goals versus Konyaspor’s 9 wins and 38 goals, with the visitors sitting 3rd in the table and the hosts 8th. Away, Trabzonspor averages 1.93 goals with 5.07 shots on target and a 67% win rate, while Konyaspor at home averages 1.27 goals, 4.27 shots on target and a 33% win rate — additionally conversion rate is 14% versus 9% for the hosts. Recent form slightly favors Konyaspor: 4 wins, 9 goals scored and only 2 conceded in the last five (average 2.6 points), whereas Trabzonspor has 2 wins and 3 draws, 5 goals and 1.8 points on average. Quality of chances is similar — Konyaspor’s home xG is 1.54 versus the visitors’ 1.48 xG on the road — but a lower share of clean-sheet-less matches for Trabzonspor (13% vs 20%) and higher shot efficiency support the visitors. Considering the seasonal edge in attacking efficiency and league position, I assign probabilities: Home 30%, Draw 25%, Away 45%.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 67% each, versus a league average of 54%, which provides a strong seasonal signal for BTTS - Yes. Konyaspor and Trabzonspor average 1.87 and 1.93 goals per match respectively (combined 3.8), with xG of 1.8 vs 1.48 in favor of the home side, confirming realistic goal potential for both teams. Recent form over the last 5 matches shows asymmetry: Konyaspor has only 20% BTTS and concedes on average 0.4 goals in those 5 games (2 conceded), while Trabzonspor has 60% BTTS and concedes 0.6 goals (3 conceded), which partially offsets the seasonal signal. Additionally, the visitors have scored 57 and conceded 32 this season, while the home side has 38 scored and 41 conceded; clean sheets stand at 33% for Konyaspor and 27% for Trabzonspor, so overall more evidence points to both sides likely to score. Based on these figures I recommend BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of about 65% versus 35% for No.

Seasonal figures point to high goal potential: Konyaspor averages 1.87 goals per match and Trabzonspor 1.93, with Over 1.5 occurring in 80% of home matches and 73% of away matches. xG breakdown suggests about 1.67 expected goals for Konyaspor (xG_for 1.8 vs xG_against_away 1.54) and about 1.38 for Trabzonspor (xG_for 1.48 vs xG_against_home 1.28), totaling ≈3.05 expected goals. Both teams have 67% of matches with both teams scoring, and in the last 5 rounds Konyaspor scored 9 and conceded 2 while Trabzonspor scored 5 and conceded 3, supporting a scenario of at least two goals. Shot and efficiency stats (Konyaspor 16.73 shots and 5.6 on target with an 11% conversion; Trabzonspor 13.6 and 5.07 on target with a 14% conversion) and seasonal Over 2.5 rates of 47%/60% give a moderate edge to Over 2.5. Therefore the strongest and safest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (high seasonal percentages and ~3.05 expected goals), while Over 2.5 has moderate probability and Over 3.5 remains less likely.

I am predicting a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1). Konyaspor posts a higher xG of 1.80 versus Trabzonspor’s 1.48 and averages more shots per game (16.73 vs 13.6) and more shots on target (5.6 vs 5.07), indicating an advantage in chance creation. At half-time the home side averages 0.73 goals scored and 0.53 conceded, lead at the break in 40% of matches and keep a half-time clean sheet in 67% of games, which favors low first-half scores. After the break Konyaspor have scored 10 goals in minutes 46–60 compared to the visitors’ 5 goals in that period, so they frequently seize the initiative immediately after the restart. Additionally, in the last 5 fixtures the home team have won 4 of 5 (80%) versus 40% wins for the away side, therefore the half-time draw followed by a Konyaspor victory appears the strongest scenario, although both teams record 67% BTTS seasonally and goals from both sides remain possible.