Kuressaare vs Tallinna FC Flora: match statistics

Tallinna FC Flora is the clear favorite in this match: they sit 2nd in the table versus Kuressaare’s 9th, have 35 goals this season compared to the home side’s 17, and have scored 10 goals in their last five matches versus Kuressaare’s 6. Chance-creation metrics strongly favor Flora — average away xG is 2.17 versus the hosts’ 1.35, and average shots are 18.11 (5.67 on target) compared to Kuressaare’s 10.5 (4.13 on target). The hosts also struggle for finishing: at home they average just 1.13 goals and fail to score in 50% of matches, while Flora average 1.67 goals away and fail to score in only 22% of games. Defensively the margins are smaller — Kuressaare concede 1.38 goals per home match while Flora concede 1.33 away — but Flora’s superiority in possession (60% vs 43%) and chance creation increases their probability of success, so I expect an away win for Flora.

I back BTTS - Yes at 70% (No 30%) because several key indicators favor goals from both sides. The league’s overall BTTS is 56% with an average of 3.01 goals per game, and both teams have high percentages of matches over 2.5 goals: Kuressaare 75% and Flora 78%, which increases the likelihood of an exchange of goals. Seasonally Kuressaare posts a lower BTTS of 38% and as many as 50% clean sheets, but in the last 5 matches their BTTS has risen to 60%; Flora’s last 5 matches show BTTS 80%, so recent form strongly supports both teams finding the net. xG stats show season xG 2.02 (Kuressaare) vs 2.17 (Flora), and in the last 5 matches Flora generates 2.39 xG while Kuressaare concedes 1.75 xG, indicating Flora should create many chances against a vulnerable home defense. Additionally, over the last 5 matches Kuressaare averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Flora averaged 2.0 scored and 1.4 conceded, so the scenario of both teams scoring looks more likely.

A model combining the home xG (2.02) and the away conceded xG (1.24) yields 1.63 expected goals for Kuressaare, while the analogous pairing of Flora’s xG (2.17) with the home defense (1.46) yields 1.82 for Tallinna FC Flora; total expected goals = 3.45. Seasonal metrics confirm an offensive profile: Over 1.5 goals occurred in 88% of Kuressaare’s matches and 89% of Flora’s matches, and Over 2.5 in 75% and 78% of cases respectively. With total expected goals of 3.45, a Poisson distribution estimates P(Over 1.5) ≈ 86%, P(Over 2.5) ≈ 67% and P(Over 3.5) ≈ 45%, aligning with seasonal shares. Kuressaare averages 16.25 shots with a 15% conversion, while Flora averages 18.11 shots and xG 2.17, so both teams consistently create scoring chances. Based on this, I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal — historical 88–89% and modelled 86% provide the largest edge.

Kuressaare led at the break in 50% of matches (4 times) and averages 1.38 first-half goals, while Tallinna FC Flora scores only 0.44 goals by half-time, which strongly favors the home side at the interval. Kuressaare averages 2.5 home goals per game with a 15% conversion rate and 2.02 xG, whereas Flora averages 1.67 goals, a 9% conversion rate and 2.17 xG — Flora creates slightly more xG (2.17 vs 2.02) but is less efficient in finishing chances. The visitors are stronger after the break (an average of 2.0 second-half goals versus Kuressaare’s 1.63) and have a higher win percentage 67% vs 63%, which increases the risk of a turnaround by the away side. Nevertheless, due to Kuressaare’s clear frequency of leading at the break (50%) and their superior effectiveness (15% vs 9%), I recommend the 1/1 scenario (Kuressaare leading at Half-Time and winning Full-Time) as the most likely outcome.