Le Puy F.43 Auvergne vs Aubagne: match statistics

Le Puy F.43 Auvergne sits 4th in the table with 12 wins and 39 goals this season, while Aubagne are 11th with 7 wins and 30 goals. The hosts' form is clearly superior: in the last 5 matches Le Puy have 4 wins and 1 draw, scoring 9 and conceding 3 (avg 2.6 points per match), whereas Aubagne in the same period have no wins, 0-2-3 record, 4 scored and 9 conceded (0.4 pts per match). At home Le Puy average 12.38 shots (4.08 on target), xG 1.42, 55% possession and concede 1.00 goal on average, while Aubagne away average 9.77 shots (4.38 on target), xG 1.21, 46% possession and concede 1.31 goals. Aubagne have a higher finishing rate (13% vs 11%), but 46% of their away matches end goalless versus 15% of Le Puy’s home games, and they have conceded 9 goals in the last 5 matches, highlighting defensive issues. Considering the form advantage, superior xG and greater chance creation by the hosts, I predict a Le Puy win; probabilities: 70% home, 18% draw, 12% away.

I forecast No BTTS with 60% probability versus 40% for BTTS - Yes, driven primarily by Aubagne’s poor scoring form. Aubagne have failed to score in 46% of matches this season and average only 0.8 goals in their last 5 games, while Le Puy have averaged 1.8 goals and conceded 0.6 in the same period. Seasonal indicators are mixed — Le Puy BTTS rate 85% vs Aubagne 38% (league 54%) — but the hosts’ last 5 home matches show a clear defensive improvement (3 goals conceded in 5), which limits the visitors’ chances to score. Additionally, xG suggests comparable attacking potential (Le Puy xG_for 1.32 vs Aubagne 1.21) and Aubagne register more on-target shots (4.38 vs 3.77), yet low conversion and the away side’s poor form (0.8 goals in L5) make the strongest signal from the data a No Goal/Goal not occurring (No BTTS).

Home xG is 1.32, away xG 1.21; defenses show Aubagne concedes on average 1.46 xG, Le Puy 1.39 — averages of these pairs yield an expected 1.39 goals for Le Puy and 1.30 for Aubagne (total 2.69). In the last 5 matches Le Puy scored 9 goals (1.8) and conceded 3 (0.6), while Aubagne has 4 scored (0.8) and 9 conceded (1.8), indicating a home advantage. Le Puy averages 10.08 shots with 3.77 on target, Aubagne 9.77 with 4.38; with conversion rates of 11% and 13% both teams create chances and goals from both sides can be expected. A Poisson model for total expected goals of 2.69 gives probability over 1.5 ≈75%, over 2.5 ≈51% and over 3.5 ≈29%, therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5. Additionally Le Puy has season-long 85% of matches with goals from both teams and 100% of matches with at least one goal, which reinforces the Over 1.5 selection.

Le Puy led at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches (80%) and averaged 1.6 goals by half-time, while Aubagne registered 0.0 goals at half-time and 0% HT leads in that period. Over the full 90 minutes the home side won 4 of the last 5 matches (80%) and average 1.8 goals across those five, whereas Aubagne have not won any of their last 5 (0% wins) and average 0.8 goals. Based on this I assign the highest probability to the 1/1 HT/FT scenario — 70% (I allocate 8% to 1/X and 2% to the very unlikely 1/2) — while noting the home xG is 1.32 versus 1.21 for the visitors, so the difference is moderate and not absolute. If the score is level at half-time (home HT draws 20% recently), it is more likely that Le Puy will still win (X/1 14%) than that the match finishes level (X/X 6%), whereas scenarios in which Aubagne lead at the break or win (2/1, 2/X, 2/2) are assessed as practically impossible given their 0% wins in the last 5 and 80% rate of being behind at the break.